Donald Trump was elected to shake Washington out of its paralysis. He is adding to America’s problems
人们选择了唐纳德川普是希望他可以给死气沉沉的华盛顿带来活力，然而现在他却成了美国的问题之一。
JULY 4th ought to bring Americanstogether. It is a day to celebratehow 13 young coloniesunited against British rule to begintheir great experiment in popular government. But thisJuly 4th Americans are riven bymutual incomprehension: between Republicans and Democrats, yes, but also between factory workers and university students, country folk and citydwellers.And then there is President Donald Trump, not onlya symptom of America’s divisions but a cause of them, too.Mr Trump won power partly because he spoke for voterswho feel that the system is working against them, as our specialreport this week sets out. He promised that, bydredgingWashington of the elites and lobbyists too stupid or self-servingto act for the whole nation, he would fix America’s politics.His approach is notworking. Five months into his first term,Mr Trump presides over a political culture that is even morepoisonous than when he took office. His core voters are remarkablyloyal. Many businesspeople still believe that he willbring tax cuts and deregulation. But their optimism stands onever-shakier ground. The Trump presidency has been plaguedby poor judgment and missed opportunities. The federal governmentis already showing the strain. Sooner or later, theharm will spreadbeyond the beltwayand into the economy.
独立日本来会是美国人一起庆祝的日子。这是为了纪念当年年轻的北美十三殖民地是如何合力反抗英国统治并开展平民政府的尝试的。但这个独立日，美国人民却被彼此的互不理解给撕裂：这种撕裂不仅存于共和党与民主党之间，也存在在工厂工人与大学学生、乡村民众与城市居民之间。现在还多了一个唐纳德川普总统，他不仅是美国分裂的症状，实际上还是美国分裂的原因之一。川普能够当选，部分是因为他为那些觉得体制和自己过不去的民众发声，我们本周的特别报道对此作了阐述。他承诺过，通过疏浚当前被不是愚蠢就是自肥、不为国谋利的精英和游说者们所占据的华盛顿，他会解决美国的政治问题。他的路线没有起作用。他的任期已经开始了五个月了，川普所领导的政治环境比他就任时更为有害。他的核心支持者们忠心耿耿。很多商业界人士依然相信他会减税和放松监管。然而他们的乐观看法正岌岌可危。川普的总统任期已经被错误的判断和错失的机会所拖累。联邦政府已经疲惫不堪。也许不久这种问题会扩散出华盛顿进入经济领域。
From sea to shining sea
两洋之间
America’s loss of faith in politics did not start with Mr Trump.For decades, voters have complained about the gridlock inWashington and the growing influence of lobbyists, oftenthose with the deepest pockets. Francis Fukuyama, a politicaltheorist, blamed the decayon the “vetocracy”, a tangle of competinginterests and responsibilities that can block almost anyambitious reform. When the world changes and the federalgovernment cannot rise to the challenge, he argued, voters’disillusion only grows.
在美国，对政治的失去信心不是从川普开始的。几十年来，选民们一直在抱怨华盛顿的僵局以及上升中的说客影响——说客们经常为最有钱的服务。弗朗西斯福山，一个政治理论家，归咎于"反对票统治"，利益冲突与立场敌对的一团乱麻、阻止了任何有抱负的改革。当世界改变时，联邦政府无力应对，他说，选民的幻灭感与日预增 。
Mr Trump has also fuelled the mistrust. He has correctlyidentified areas where America needs reform, but botched hisresponse—partly because of his own incontinent ego. Take tax.No one doubts that America’s tax code is a mess, stuffed full ofloopholes and complexity. But Mr Trump’s reform plans showevery sign of turning into a cut for the rich that leaves the codeas baffling as ever. So, too, health care. Instead of reformingObamacare, Republicans are in knots over a bill that wouldleave millions of Mr Trump’s own voters sicker and poorer.
川普也助长了不信任。他正确的认识到美国所需要改革的领域，但所做的修补却笨拙不堪，部分原因可能是因为他那难以自控的自负。比如税务。没有人不相信美国的税法一团混乱，充满了漏洞和复杂性。但川普的改革计划却无处不表现出是在为富人减税，使得税法一如既往的难以读懂。还有，医保法案。共和党没有选择改革奥巴马医保法案，而是在一个会使得川普的支持者们更穷更病的法案上叽叽喳喳。
Institutions are vulnerable. The White House is right tocomplain about America’s overlapping and competing agencies,which spun too much red tape under President BarackObama. Yet its attempt to reform this “administrative state” iswrecking the machinery the government needs to function.Mr Trump’s hostility has already undermined the courts, theintelligence services, the state department and America’s environmentalwatchdog. He wants deep budget cuts and has failedto fill presidential appointments. Of 562 key positions identifiedby theWashington Post, 390 remain without a nominee.
政府机构脆弱不堪。白宫说的没错，政府部门职能重叠相互竞争导致了太多在奥巴马总统治下所产生出的官僚主义。但它试图改革这一“行政国家”的努力却损坏了政府赖以运行的机制本身。川普的敌意已经削弱了法庭、情报机构、国务院以及美国的环境监察机构。他想大刀阔斧的削减预算而没有完成总统所需要完成的官员任命。在华盛顿邮报所识别出的562个关键职位上，390个职位至今还没有提名者。
As harmful as what Mr Trump does is the way he does it. Inthe campaign he vowed to fight special interests. But his solution—to employ business people too rich for lobbyists tobuy—is no solution at all. Just look at Mr Trump himself: despitehis half-hearted attempts to disentangle the presidencyand the family business, nobody knows where one ends andthe other begins. He promised to be a dealmaker, but his impulseto belittle his opponents and the miasma of scandal andleaks surrounding Russia’s role in the campaign have made thechances of cross-party co-operation even more remote. Thelack of respect for expertise, such as the attacks on the CongressionalBudget Office over its dismal scoring of health-care reform,only makes Washington more partisan. Most important,Mr Trump’s disregard for the truth cuts into what remains ofthe basis for cross-party agreement. If you cannot agree on thefacts, all you have left is a benightedclash of rival tribes.
与川普所做的一样有害的是他做事的方式。他誓言要对抗利益集团。但他的解决方案——雇佣有钱到说客无法收买的商业界人士——一点也不靠谱。只要看看川普自己，除了他半心半意的试图解绑家族生意与总统职责的努力以外，没有人知道这两者的界限在哪里。他承诺要做一个谈判高手，但他羞辱对手的冲动，以及一团围绕俄罗斯在竞选中角色的丑闻和泄密的乌烟瘴气使得跨党派合作看起来遥不可及。对于专业的不尊重，比如在医保改革上攻击国会预算办公室在做无用功，只能使得华盛顿更加分裂。最重要的是，川普对于真相的不尊重，伤害了仅存的可以打成跨党派共识的基础。如果在事实上都无法达成一致，所留存的也只能是蒙昧落后的敌对部落间的战争。
Til selfish gain no longer stain
Optimists say that America, with its immense diversity,wealth and reserves of human ingenuity and resilience cantake all this in its stride. Mr Trump is hardly its first bad president.He maybe around for only four years—if that. In a federalsystem, the states and big cities can be islands of competenceamid the dysfunction. America’s economy is seemingly inrude health, with stockmarkets near their all-time highs. Thecountry dominates global tech and finance, and its oil and gasproducers have more clout than at any time since the 1970s.Those are huge strengths. But they only mitigate the damagebeing done in Washington. Health-care reform affects asixth of the economy. Suspicion and mistrust corrode all theytouch. If the ablest Americans shun a career in public service,the bureaucracy will bear the scars. Besides, a bad presidentalso imposes opportunity costs. The rising monopoly powerof companies has gone unchallenged. Schools and training fallshort even as automation and artificial intelligence are aboutto transform the nature of work. If Mr Trump serves a full eightyears—which, despite attacks from his critics, is possible—theprice of paralysis and incompetence could be huge.
乐观者们说美国可以带着它的无尽多样性、财富和人类才智的贮藏、以及韧性一直大踏步向前。川普不是它的第一个糟糕的总统。他没准只能待四年。在联邦体制下，各州与大城市可以成为这团混乱之中的自治的岛屿。美国的经济看起来不错，股市处于接近历史最高点的位置。该国主宰了全球的技术和金融，它的油气集团有着自1970年代以来最高的影响力。这些是巨大的优势。但它们只能减轻华盛顿所造成损害。医保改革影响了六分之一的经济。疑虑和不信任磨损了它们所接触到的一切。如果最有能力的美国人不愿意于从事公共服务工作，官僚机构会承担后果。另外，一个糟糕的总统也会导致坐失良机。公司们的垄断权力日益上升，无人监管。学校教育和培训并不合格，而自动化和人工智能却即将改写工作的本质。如果川普能连任八年——虽然对他一直批评不断，这种可能还是有的——为瘫痪和无能所付出的代价将是巨大的。
The dangers are already clear in foreign policy. By panderingto the belief that Washington elites sell America short, MrTrump is doing enduring harm to American leadership. TheTrans-Pacific Partnership would have entrenched America’sconcept of free markets in Asia and shored up its military alliances.He walked away from it. His rejection of the Paris climateaccord showed that he sees the world not as a forumwhere countries work together to solve problems, but as anarena where they compete for advantage. His erratic decision makingand his chumminess with autocrats lead his allies towonder if they can depend on him in a crisis.
在外交上，危险已经暴露无遗。为了迎合那种认为华盛顿精英们正在贱卖美国的观点，川普所做的、对美国的领导力造成了长期的伤害。TPP本来可以在亚洲确立美式自由市场理念并为其军事盟友提供支柱。他却将之抛弃。他对巴黎气候协定的拒绝也表明，他不认为这个世界是个各国通力合作解决问题的论坛，反而是个彼此间为利益争斗的竞技场。他的错误决定以及他和独裁者们的眉来眼去使得他的盟友们怀疑在危机时刻还能不能指望他。
July 4th is a time to remember that America has renewed itselfin the past; think of Theodore Roosevelt’s creation of amodern, professional state, FDR’s New Deal, and the Reaganrevolution. In principle it is not too late for Mr Trump to embracebipartisanship and address the real issues. In practice, itis ever clearer that he is incapable of bringing about such a renaissance.That will fall to his successor.7
独立日是纪念美国过往的复兴的日子，比如老罗斯福所建立的新型专业化政体，小罗斯福的新政，以及里根的改革。就理论而言，川普重回两党合作、致力于真正问题的解决尚为时不晚。就实际而言，现在已经更为清楚——他不足以带来一场类似的复兴——那只能寄希望于他的继任者。
