19.03.16 Economics 经济学人 Whatever next?

本篇讲的是英国首相特蕾莎梅的退欧方案再一次被否决,随着还剩两周的脱欧时间,目前的进度很是让人担忧,甚至很有可能采取“裸脱”。

When historians come to write the tale of Britain’s at tempts to leave the European Union, this week may be seen as the moment the country finally grasped the mess it was in. In the campaign, Leavers had promised voters that Brexit would be easy because Britain “holds all the cards”. This week Parliament was so scornful of the exit deal that Theresa May had spent two years negotiating and renegotiating in Brussels that MPS(member of parliament国会议员) threw it out for a second time, by 149 votes—the fourth-biggest government defeat in modern parliamentary history. The next day MPS rejected what had once been her back-up plan of simply walking out without a deal. The prime minister has lost control. On Wednesday four cabinet ministers failed to back her in a crucial vote. Both main parties, long divided over Brexit, are seeing their factions splintering into ever-angrier sub-factions. And all this just two weeks before exit day.

当历史学家写到英国试图脱欧的传说时,本周也许会被视为英国终于发现了自己处于一团乱麻情景的时刻。在这场战役中,主张脱欧的人向投票者承诺脱欧很简单,因为英国掌握着一切。而本周议会对特蕾莎梅在布鲁塞尔用两年时间谈判的退出方案嗤之以鼻,国会议员也再一次以149名投票反对的方式将这个方案废弃,这是现代国会历史上第四大的政府失败记录。第二天国会议员也反对了特蕾莎梅的备用计划:裸脱欧。首相已经无法控制局面了。周三四位内阁部长也没有在这关键的投票中支持她。在脱欧方案分歧已久的两党,看着他们的内讧分裂的越来越大。所有这些都是发生在脱欧日的两周前。

Even by the chaotic standards of the three years since the referendum, the country is lost (see Britain section). Mrs May boasted this week of “send[ing] a message to the whole world about the sort of country the United Kingdom will be”. She is not wrong: it is a laughing-stock. An unflappable place supposedly built on compromise and a stiff upper lip(坚硬的上嘴唇,指的是坚定沉着、感情不外露,典型的英国人形象) is consumed by accusations of treachery and betrayal. Yet the demolition of her plan offers Britain a chance to rethink its misguided approach to leaving the eu. Mrs May has made the worst of a bad job. This week’s chaos gives the country a shot at coming up with something better.

在公投后三年的混乱局面中,这个国家已经失去了控制。特蕾莎梅曾经吹嘘道:“本周是向整个世界宣示英国会变成什么样的国家的一周。”她没说错,英国会变成一个笑柄。一个稳定的国家应该建立在退让以及在被背叛指控下仍坚定沉着的特质下。但她的计划的失败给了英国一个重新思考它是否以错误的方式离开了欧盟的机会。特蕾莎已经对这份坏工作做了最坏的准备,而本周的混乱给予了这个国家想出更好方式的启发。

The immediate consequence of the rebellion in Westminster(威斯敏斯特,英国议会所在地) is that Brexit must be delayed. As we went to press, Parliament was to vote for an extension of the March 29th deadline. For its own sake the eu should agree. A no-deal Brexit would hurt Britain grievously, but it would also hurt the eu—and Ireland as grievously as Britain. 

英国议会反抗的目前后果就是英国脱欧必须延期。在本期刊发布的时候,议会正在投票是否延期三月二十九号的最后期限。为了他们自己,欧盟也应该统一。无协议脱欧不仅会严重伤害英国和爱尔兰,也会伤害到欧盟。

Mrs May’s plan is to hold yet another vote on her deal and to cudgel Brexiteers into supporting it by threatening them with a long extension that she says risks the cancellation of Brexit altogether. At the same time she will twist the arms of moderates by pointing out that a no-deal Brexit could still happen, because avoiding it depends on the agreement of the eu, which is losing patience. It is a desperate tactic from a prime minister who has lost her authority. It forces MPS to choose between options they find wretched when they are convinced that better alternatives are available. Even if it succeeds, it would deprive Britain of the stable.

特蕾莎梅的计划是再次发起对她的提案的投票,并通过威胁脱欧派说长时间的延期也许就会导致脱欧的失败,来要求/强迫他们支持该提案。同时她也会指出无协议脱欧可能会发生,因为这取决于正在逐渐失去耐心的欧盟的想法,这将会改变中间派的投票。对于失去了自己权力的首相来说,实施这种策略是无奈之举。这会强迫议员们在坏方案以及更好的选项中进行选择。即使这个方案成功了,也会导致英国陷入不稳定的环境,

To overcome the impasse created by today’s divisions, Britain needs a long extension. The question is how to use it to forge that stable, consenting majority in Parliament and the country. 

为了打破现在分歧的僵局,英国需要一个长期的延期。问题是如何说服国家和议会中的大部分人,来创造稳定的环境。

An increasingly popular answer is: get rid of Mrs May. The prime minister’s deal has flopped and her authority is shot. A growing number of Tories(英国保守党的党员) believe that a new leader with a new mandate could break the logjam (see Bagehot). Yet there is a high risk that Conservative Party members would install a replacement who takes the country towards an ultra-hard Brexit. What’s more, replacing Mrs May would do little to solve the riddle of how to put together a deal. The parties are fundamentally split. To believe that a new tenant in Downing Street could put them back together again and engineer a majority is to believe the Brexiteers’ fantasy that theirs is a brilliant project that is merely being badly executed. 

现在比较流行的答案就是:让特蕾莎梅下台。特蕾莎梅的提案被拒,权力被削。越来越多的保守党成员认为一个新的领导人会打破目前的僵局。但是保守党派也有很大的风险会引入一个带领国家走向极度困难脱欧方向的人。并且,只替换特蕾莎对于解决问题没有什么帮助。党派已经彻底地分裂了。相信唐宁街新房客会重新将党派集聚在一起并且领导大部分人,就相当于相信脱欧党派他们那自认为完美、但实际上几乎无法实行的幻想一样。

Calls for a general election are equally misguided. The country is as divided as the parties. Britain could go through its fourth poll in as many years only to end up where it started. Tory MPS might fall into line if they had been elected on a manifesto promising to enact the deal. But would the Conservatives really go into an election based on Mrs May’s scheme, which has twice been given a drubbing by MPS and was described this week even by one supportive Tory mp as “the best turd that we have”? It does not have the ring of a successful campaign.

对于公投的呼声也基本是被误导了的,这个国家就像它的党派一样分裂了。英国可以像多年前开始的时候一样通过第四次公投将其结束。如果保守党成员依靠承诺保证协议的达成,他们也可能会站在统一战线。但在特蕾莎梅的方案被国会议员两次否决,甚至被一位保守党议员形容为‘我们有的最好的屎’的情况下,保守人士真的会参加选举吗?其实他们并没有拿下成功选举的能力。

To break the logjam, Mrs May needs to do two things. The first is to consult Parliament, in a series of indicative votes that will reveal what form of Brexit can command a majority. The second is to call a referendum to make that choice legitimate. Today every faction sticks to its red lines, claiming to be speaking for the people. Only this combination can put those arguments to rest. 

为了打破僵局,梅女士需要做两件事:第一件是咨询议会,目前的投票情况反映了什么样的形式可以说服大多数人支持脱欧。第二件是发起使该项形式合法的公投。如今每个派系都坚守他们的最后底线,并声称是为人民着想。只有这两件事才能让这些争吵歇一歇。

Take these steps in turn. Despite the gridlock, the outlines of a parliamentary compromise are visible. Labour wants permanent membership of the eu’s customs union, which is a bit closer to the eu than Mrs May’s deal. Alternatively, mps may favour a Norway-style setup—which this newspaper has argued for and would keep Britain in the single market. The eu is open to both. Only if Mrs May cannot establish a consensus should she return to her own much-criticised plan.

逐步实施这些方案。尽管目前是僵局,但议会的妥协已经可以预见了。工党想要欧盟关税同盟的永久会员资格,这比起梅女士的方案来说更接近于欧盟。或者议员们可能会喜欢一种挪威风格的方式,我们杂志已经讨论过这种风格,认为挪威风格会使英国限制在单一市场中。欧盟对于两种方案都支持,只有当梅女士不能建立一个共识的时候,她才能选择她自己饱受争议的计划。

Getting votes for these or any other approach would require thinking beyond party lines. That does not come naturally in Britain’s adversarial, majoritarian policies. But the whipping system is breaking down. Party structures are fraying. 

给这些或其他的方案投票需要在党派的角度之外思考,这并不会在对抗性的、多数党派的政策下自然发生。但是这种政党系统正在解体,党派结构正在逐渐分解。脱离的

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