>> Renewable energy: A world turned upside down | TE
Day 8-9: Vocabulary
→ Wind and solar energy are disrupting a century-old model of providing electricity.
disrupt: to cause disorder or turmoil in
(Turmoil is a state of confusion, disorder, uncertainty, or great anxiety.)
→ [business] to radically change (an industry, business strategy, etc.), as by introducing a new product or service that creates a new market
(radically: in a complete or basic manner; thoroughly; fundamentally.)
e.g. ① The news disrupted their conference.
② It’s time to disrupt your old business model.
【Word Origin】
[Latin] disruptus (variant of dīruptus, past participle of dīrumpere; dī- di-2 + rumpere to break), equivalent to dis-+ rup- break + -tus past participle suffixa
↑dis- : Latin prefix meaning “apart,” “asunder,” “away,” “utterly,” or having a privative, negative, or reversing force
【形近词】
interrupt: to cause or make a break in the continuity or uniformity of (a course, process, condition, etc.).
corrupt: to destroy the integrity of; cause to be dishonest, disloyal, etc., especially by bribery.
→ …"In front of you, you can see the death of the conventional utility, all financed by Mr and Mrs Schmidt. It's a beautiful sight." The wind blowing across Wildpoldsried towards the Alps lazily turns the turbines on the hills above.
utility: a public service, as a telephone or electric-light system, a streetcar or railroad line, or the like.
→ public utility: a business enterprise, as a public-service corporation, performing an essential public service and regulated by the federal, state, or local government.
e.g. Goldwater co-chairs a campaign to “stand up to utility monopolies to ensure solar energy remains strong in America.”
【词汇延伸】
[economics] the capacity of a commodity or a service to satisfy some human want
turbine: A turbine is a machine or engine which uses a stream of air, gas, water, or steam to turn a wheel and produce power.
→ The south-facing roofs of the houses, barns and cowsheds are blanketed with blue photovoltaic (PV) solar panels.
barn: a building for storing hay, grain, etc., and often for housing livestock.
e.g. From the roof of the barn is a long loop of rope, through this the turkey is suspended by its legs.
cowshed: a shed serving as a shelter for cows.
(shed: a slight or rude structure built for shelter, storage, etc.)
photovoltaic (PV): of, concerned with, or producing electric current or voltage caused by electromagnetic radiation, esp visible light from the sun
photo- from Greekphōs, phōt- light + voltaics galvanic (of, producing, or concerned with an electric current, esp a direct current produced chemically)
PV 指利用太阳能发电，光伏行业。 由于这种电力方式不会产生氮氧化物，以及对人体有害的气体与辐射性废弃物，被称为「清洁发电技术」。
→ The cows on the green fields produce manure that generates biogas which warms the Biergarten, the sports hall and many of the houses where the 2,600 villagers live, as well as backing up the wind and solar generators in winter.
manure: excrement, especially of animals, or other refuse used as fertilizer.
(excrement: waste matter discharged from the body, especially feces)
→ And the things it is based on — subsidies for investment, very little spending on fuel, and moving electricity generation to the edge of , or off, the grid — are anathema to electricity markets and business models developed for the fossil-fuel age.
subsidy: a direct pecuniary aid furnished by a government to a private industrial undertaking, a charity organization, or the like.
(pecuniary: 1. of or relating to money 2. consisting of or given or exacted in money or monetary payments)
【Synonyms】subsidy vs.subvention
# both grants of money, especially governmental, to aid private undertakings.
→ A subsidy is usually given to promotecommercial enterprise.
→ A subvention is usually a grant to stimulate enterprises connected with science and the arts.
grid: a system of electrical distribution serving a large area, especially by means of high-tension lines.
【词汇延伸】
iPhone camera中的网格线模式'Grid' (见下图↓)
anathema: a person or thing accursed or consigned to damnation or destruction.
→ Few greens would mourn them. But the fall in utility revenues that comes with the spread of places like Wildpoldsried is not just bad news for fossil-fuel-era incumbents in the generation and transmission businesses.
mourn: to feel or express sorrow or grief over (misfortune, loss, or anything regretted); deplore.
e.g. We shake our heads, and feel grateful for what we have, andmournwhat others have lost.
【Antonyms】laugh at, rejoice
【词汇延伸】revenue, income
In accordance with IFRS 15 Revenue from Contracts with Customers:
income: Increases in economic benefits during the accounting period in the form of inflows or enhancements of assets or decreases of liabilities that result in an increase in equity, other than those relating to contributions from equity participants
revenue: Income arising in the course of an entity's ordinary activities
incumbent: (adj.) holding an indicated position, role, office, etc., currently; (noun.) the holder of an office
e.g. ① There was no way an incumbent president sitting on these kinds of economic figures could possibly be reelected.
② But the first job of a party out of power is to convince voters to fire the incumbent.
→ The EU's emissions-trading scheme is a perennial disappointment: still, hope springs eternal, as witness a recent attempt to persuade the new American administration of the benefits of a revenue-neutral economy-wide carbon tax devoted to providing $2,000 to every family of four in rebates.
perennial: lasting for an indefinitely long time; enduring
e.g. And of course there are the perennial stories about how the new models are really fragile and easy to break, or are easy to hack.
【Synonym】long-lasting, everlasting perpetual
revenue-neutral: Taxing procedure that allows the government to still receive the same amount of money despite changes in tax laws. The government may lower taxes for one particular group of people, but raise taxes for another group. This allows the revenue that they receive to remain unchanged (neutral).
e.g. My boss encouraged the President to replace our income tax policy with a revenue neutral national sales tax that would encourage income and would tax consumption.
rebate: partial refund
→ Investment in supply beyond what the market required has produced gluts and pushed down prices.
glut: an excessive amount, as in the production of a crop, often leading to a fall in price
e.g. The steel industry is suffering from a global production glut caused by the slowdown in the Chinese economy.
→ In America this has been somewhat masked by the shale-gas revolution, which has caused a bigger shift in the same direction.
Shale gas is natural gas that is found trapped within shale formations (页岩气)
→ Wholesale electricity prices have slumped from around €80 a megawatt-hour in 2008 to €30-50 nowadays.
wholesale: the sale of goods in quantity, as to retailers or jobbers, for resale
outlet, bulk
slump: (of business activity, etc) to decline suddenly; collapse
→ The result has been havoc for the old-style utilities.
havoc: great destruction or devastation
e.g. The visitors have been disrupted by floods that wreaked havoc in the town.
→ 【EY】
"Big Four" accounting firms
→ PwC
→ DTT
→ EY
→ KPMG
→ Electricity markets, especially those that were deregulated in the late 20th century, typically work on a "merit order": at any given time they meet demand by taking electricity first from the cheapest supplier, then the next-cheapest, until they have all they need…
merit: claim to respect and praise; excellence; worth.
【Synonym】merit, desert, worth
refer to the quality in a person, action, or thing that entitles recognition, especially favorable recognition.
Merit is usually the excellence that entitles to praise
e.g. a person of great merit
Desert is the quality that entitles one to a just reward:
e.g. according to her deserts
Worth is always used in a favorable sense and signifies inherent value or goodness
e.g. The worth of your contribution is incalculable.
→ But renewables are intermittent, which means that in systems where the infrastructure was designed before intermittency became an issue — almost all of them, in practice — fossil-fuel, hydroelectric and nuclear plants are needed more or less as much as ever at times when the sun doesn't shine and the winds don't blow.
intermittent: occurring occasionally or at regular or irregular intervals; periodic
e.g. Tidal electricity has another advantage over wind with its intermittent output.
这段话解释了新能源发电的不稳定性，阐述新旧能源目前必须并存却又“互相伤害”的局面。
→ Grid with lots of storage capacity built in; grids big enough to reach out to faraway renewables when the nearby ones are in the doldrums…
doldrums: a state of inactivity or stagnation, as in business or art
e.g. August is a time of doldrums for many enterprises.
→ When they are a small part of the system, renewables are insulated from the effects that their low marginal costs have on prices, because…
insulate: to place in an isolated situation or condition; segregate.
If a person or group is insulated from the rest of society or from outside influences, they are protected from them.
e.g. Many of them lived underground, letting the land itself insulate them from the sun's killing heat.
→ Utilities which are required to have renewables in their portfolios, such as those in California, used to offer companies investing in that capacity generous long-term contracts.
【词汇延伸】
[专] portfolio: the total holdings of the securities, commercial paper, etc., of a financial institution or private investor.
e.g. Eighty-six percent of stocks in the "Sold in the USA" portfolio offer juicy dividends, yielding on average 2.7 percent.
【词汇延伸】
[专] contract: The unit of trade for a financial or commodity future
→ … as such utilities come closer to meeting their mandates, solar-power developers are being offered shorter-term fixed prices with a higher subsequent exposure to variable wholesale prices.
mandate: an authoritative order or command
→ The subsidies have helped costs of wind and solar to fall precipitously around the world.
precipice:
① a cliff with a vertical, nearly vertical, or overhanging face
② a situation of great peril
e.g. If there is a tipping point, and we're close to it, we should probably be trying to back off the precipice.
→ Recent auctions for offshore wind farms in the North Sea and solar developments in Mexico and Abu Dhabi have shown developers slashing prices to win fixed contracts to supply clean electricity for decades to come.
auction: Also called public sale. a publicly held sale at which property or goods are sold to the highest bidder.
offshore & outsource
slash: to cut, reduce, or alter
e.g. Mr. Gates has said repeatedly that he will slash his budget by $100 billion.
→ Especially in sunny and windy developing countries with fast-growing demand, they offer a potentially lucrative, subsidy-free investment opportunity.
lucrative: profitable; moneymaking; remunerative
CG: "Remmuneration committee"
e.g. Activating iPhones promised a lucrative, steady revenue stream for Synchronoss.
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Day 10: Mindmap
初始版本
对比安妮示范导图，修改意见：
1. solution补充整理：①“nibbling away” subnode; ②概要：Long-term solution; ③Life-time capacity building
2. customers补充整理：①主体细分；②补充retail-price-taker
修改后mindmap:
Day 11: 延伸与总结
【背景延伸】我国的电价政策
用电流程图
各种电价
1. 上网电价
含义：指电网购买发电企业的电力和电量，在发电企业接入主网架那一点的计量价格。
类别：①核电上网价 ②风电上网价 ③火电上网价 ④水电上网价 ⑤光伏上网价
2. 输配电价
含义：指销售电价中包含的输配电成本。(销售电价-上网电价)
类别：①独立省网 ②大区电网 ③跨区电网
我国六个区域电网：东北、华北、华东、华中、西北 和南方电网
一个独立省网：西藏自治区
3. 销售电价
含义：指电网经营企业对终端用户销售电能的价格。(供电部门卖给用户的价格)
类别：①居民生活用电 ②普通工业用电 ③非工业用电 ④商业用电 ⑤农业生产用电
【Mindmap】
这次的mindmap受安妮提点，采取了以stakeholders 为 subnodes 串联全文 & stretch out mindmap，在此基础上，整张导图的布局灵感来源于“国民经济流量循环模型”。
(Electricity Market是经济中众多商品市场中的一个，有需求方与供给方，有政府宏观调控，主要问题围绕着Electricity Supply Chain上的几大主体与政府间的复杂关系展开。)
回顾三篇文章中安妮示范导图的展开方式：
1. The Science Book: 横向时间轴
2. Space and TIme: 纵向时间轴
3. Renewable Energy: 关系图 + 纵向时间轴 (问题发展)
【体悟与思考】
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意料之外，这一篇我学得远比The Science Book 和 Space and Time更吃力——并不是因为Renewable Energy更加抽象，或逻辑复杂而无法推演，而恰恰是它所牵涉的内容与我息息相关，我无法给自己一个不推敲、不往深处挖掘、不高速运转头脑的理由。
夜已深。明天用清醒的头脑静心思考后，再把最后的思考补全。
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————Day11 (3月9日晚) 分割线————
今天趁着上课和休息的时间想了一些问题——
一是师太提到的“可再生能源现如今面临的问题要如何解决”。技术问题是个硬问题，暂时撇开不谈。新能源的“咬尾”悖论及其与旧能源相爱相杀的关系，围绕的一个核心问题就是文章中提到renewables' nature -- intermittency。正因为新能源在自然条件缺失时尚需旧能源来代替它的角色，从而无法独立于旧能源生存，这种“妥协性”决定了它不可能让旧能源在竞争中被淘汰，若非要逆道而行只能损敌一千自损八百。于是，暂时忽略从长期上利用技术进步解决的可能，这个问题有两个解决方向：1. 供给侧响应；2. 需求侧响应。
供给侧响应，即让电力供给主动适应用户的用电需求峰谷。工业用电一般有“用电量大、用电时间稳定（随机行为少）”的特点，而个人用户用电量小、用电时间的随机性强，如果没有强大的数据后台做行为定量分析从而定出一个合适的供电方案，电力供应方就要承担相当大的成本。
需求侧相应，即让用电需求“适应”电力供给。考虑到电力行业实际上和移动、联通等运营商的运营模式十分相似（讲道理，运营商推出的夜间流量包也体现了调节峰谷需求的意图嘛），日后设计与推广“用电套餐”或许不失为一条有效的路径。E.ON UK的业务中也有为用户设计不同的能源套餐，我国于2016年底南网云南电网公司推出了国内首个居民用电套餐。
二是“快速了解一个陌生领域”的方向。我认为之前我思考不出所以然，是因为对电力行业的整个supply chain不是很了解，另外文章提到了价格，无论是retail price/ wholesale price 还是 MC，我都不是很了解（包括定价权由谁掌握，costs组成，etc.）。没有地基的思考只能是空中楼阁。于是我想起了昨天安妮提到的"快速了解一个陌生领域"。实际上快速了解一个陌生领域，就是将一些各行业的“本质”的东西抽象出来，再作为指导我们日后学习与工作的方法论，而昨天听安妮FM的时候，她提到了将producers, grid, customers, government作为mindmap的贯穿主线，换个角度就是弄清楚电力行业的供应链（虽然根据文章画出的导图不包括输配电环节）——根据供应链梳理出上下游主体的关系，也能对行业利益链条上的关系有个大致的了解。
总结一些这次运用到的途径：行业研究报告，龙头企业年报，法条，新闻资讯
但是我为什么要了解一个行业？为了show off？如果只是为了知道而知道，这种学习并不是我想要的。我一直相信无论身处哪个领域，都有一些相通的“本质的”东西存在着，能够比常人更接近事物本质的人，身处不同领域，以不同的背景出发，也能到达同一个终点（Verifiable），就如所谓“英雄所见略同”。说起来倒是有点哲学的意味。不过问题的关键在于，能够结合自己的知识储备和认知体系去提出自己的观点，至少这样是比纯粹了解一个领域而之后与其老死不相往来要有意义得多。
（本来想尝试分析一下国网控股的4家上市公司和文章中Sonnen的财报对比一下经营绩效，可惜国网下的4家的2016年报还没出，Sonnen大概还没上市吧（在FWB等几个网站上以及它的官网上都没有找到披露的年报），于是就暂时作罢了……(理由那么多难道不是你不知道从何下手？) anyway找到一个新角度也挺有意思的w ）
对我日后学习的启示：通过research快速了解陌生领域的运行框架与模式，并从身处领域的角度找到切入口提出一些有“亮点”的想法。毕竟现在还未正式踏入行业领域，我依然身处象牙塔，自认所思所想谈不上有亮点的“观点”，那么便退而求其次，让自己能达到提出有“亮点”的想法这个层次（事实上这就要付出很多努力了的…way to go _(:з」∠)_ ）
总的来看，这次的收获：看到了renewable energy的另一面；初步了解电力行业supply chain，扫了一些盲点（e.g 绩效评估之杜邦分析法），回顾了国民经济流量循环模型，拓展了brainstorming的广度，最后——挑战了轮轴转情形下的工作极限……
————Day11 (3月9日晚) 分割线结束————
ps: 甘比送我的生日礼物大概就是休息日了吧（笑~）
鲸鱼
2017年3月9日
