The Cryptocurrency Bull Market Is Just Getting Started 密币的牛市才刚刚开始

写在前面:

这篇文章我第一次看到是在我的一个微信群中,有朋友分享了中文版。原版的翻译机翻味太重,几乎到了影响理解的地步,所以我自己找出了英文原文并尝试翻译了全文。我不是金融和区块链方面的专家,仅仅是对这种新兴的技术感兴趣,如果文中有任何错误和需要改进的地方,请一定告诉我!

非常感谢,以下是正文。


steemit.com · November 12, 2017

By Teeka Tiwari

"Are you still buying tulip bulbs, Tiwari?"

“你还在买郁金香球茎吗,蒂瓦里?”

I was on the phone with one of the best market timers I know.

和我通电话的人是我认识的对市场时机的把握能力最好的人之一。

In another life, he was a floor trader on the Philadelphia options exchange. That's where he developed an uncanny knack for reading the direction of the stock market.

在另一种生活中,他是费城期权交易所的场内交易员。他就是在那里锻炼出了他对股市方向那无与伦比的嗅觉。

The guy is smart as a whip. Most of the time, he's quite likeable. On the day of our call, he was being unbearably obnoxious.

这家伙聪明过人,而且大多数时候也很招人喜爱。不过在我们通电话那天,他却烦得我无法忍受。

A few months before the call, I told him to load up on Bitcoin and a small under-the-radar idea called Ethereum.

在通话前几个月,我让他重仓比特币和一个名为以太坊的不起眼的玩意儿。

He laughed and called both ideas "dumb and worthless." He then compared them to one of the most infamous bubbles in history: the Dutch Tulip mania of the 1630s.

他笑了起来,把这两个想法都称为“愚蠢无价值”。然后,他把这些想法与历史上最臭名昭著的泡沫之一,十六世纪的荷兰郁金香狂热相提并论。

At its peak in 1636, one tulip bulb could fetch $141,762. By 1637, the bubble had burst.

在1636年的顶峰期,一只郁金香球茎价值 141,762 美元。到1637年,泡沫破裂了。

Hence the "tulip" jab.

这就是他前面提到郁金香的原因。

This guy's ideas have made me a lot of money over the years. I was trying to repay the favor.

这家伙的想法多年来让我赚了很多钱。我当时是想要报答他。

I told him it wasn't too late to get in. But he wouldn't listen. After hitting me with a few choice insults, I wished him well and ended the call.

我告诉他,现在进场还不算晚,但他不听。在被他骂了几句之后,我祝他好,挂上了电话。

I can't blame him for being skeptical.

我不能责怪他的慎疑。

Cryptos are a brand-new asset class. They're completely different from stocks, bonds, and traditional currencies.

密币是一个全新的资产类别。它们与股票,债券和传统货币完全不同。

But that was over 18 months ago.

不过那是18个月前的事了。

Since then, Bitcoin has risen 1,600% and ether (the coin for the Ethereum network) is up 2,563%.

自那以后,比特币上涨了 1,600%,以太币 (以太坊网络的虚拟币) 上涨了 2,563%。

Like my floor trader colleague, perhaps you feel that crypto assets aren't assets at all. Perhaps you've missed out on this incredible run and think it's too late to get in.

就像我的交易员同事一样,也许你觉得密币资产根本就不算资产。也许你已经错过了这个令人难以置信的疯涨,并认为现在进场已经太迟了。

I want to show you why cryptocurrencies are not like the Dutch Tulip Craze. In fact, we're still in the early days of the cryptocurrency boom.

我想告诉你为什么加密货币不像荷兰郁金香热潮。事实上,我们还处在加密货币繁荣的初期

According to billionaire hedge fund manager Mike Novogratz, the entire crypto market is set to become 25-times larger in the next 5 years. That would be a 2,400+% rise from today. (And he's putting his money where his mouth is. Novogratz recently put 10% of his net worth into crypto assets.)

根据亿万富翁对冲基金经理 Mike Novogratz 的说法,今后 5 年内整个密币市场将会增长 25 倍。和今天相比,涨幅是 2400%。(并且 Novogratz 不是一个光说不练的人:他最近把自己 10% 的身家投入了密币资产。)

That means this asset class still has plenty of room to run... and there's still time for you to join the ride.

这意味着这个资产类别还有足够的空间可以运行......而且还有时间让你加入。

What I'm about to share with you could be very valuable.

我将与你分享的内容非常有价值。

Like the internet before them, cryptocurrencies have the potential to reshape the economy... And they offer a rare opportunity for ordinary individuals to make life-changing gains.

就像之前的互联网一样,加密货币有重塑经济形态的潜力......而且它们为普通人提供了一个难得的机会,让他们获得改变生活的收益。

The Cryptocurrency Ecosystem

加密货币生态系统

To kick off your education, you need to understand there are two types of crypto assets: cryptocurrencies and utility coins (also called app coins).

要开始理解密币,你首先要了解,有两种密币资产:加密货币,和实用币(也被叫做应用币)。

Think of cryptocurrencies as the digital equivalent of traditional fiat currencies such as dollars, euros, and pounds.

把加密货币当作传统法定货币(如美元,欧元和英镑)的数字等价物。

You can use them as a medium of exchange or to store value. The only difference is they're exchanged over the blockchain.

你可以同样将它们用作一种交换或存储价值的媒介。唯一的区别是,密币在区块链上交易。

Think of utility coins as crypto-equities. They're like buying shares in IBM, Walmart, or Apple. Instead, you're buying a stake in a blockchain venture.

把实用币想象成加密股票。他们就像在IBM,沃尔玛或苹果公司买股票一样,不过你是在区块链上做风投。

Cryptocurrencies and utility coins are similar in that they both operate on a blockchain.

加密货币和实用币的相似之处在于,它们都在区块链上运作。

The blockchain is like an online public ledger. It's used to track cryptocurrency transactions.

区块链就像在线公共账本。它用于跟踪加密货币交易。

[Blockchain is a public ledger of all cryptocurrency transactions executed. It's a shared network that can move value around and represent property ownership.]

[区块链是记录所有加密货币交易的公开帐本。这是一个共享的网络,可以转移价值并代表财产所有权。]

Now that you know the two types of crypto assets, let me explain how each works...

现在你已经知道了两种加密资产,让我解释一下每种方法的工作原理…

A New Form of Money

新的货币形式

Cryptocurrencies are the crypto asset that most folks are familiar with. So, we'll dive into this one first.

加密货币是大多数人所熟悉的加密资产。所以,我们先来看看这个。

The most common cryptocurrencies is Bitcoin.

最常见的加密货币就是比特币。

It was created to act as alternatives to fiat (paper) money.

创造它的目的就是为了替代法定(纸质)货币。

Two frequent questions we get are why would anyone buy a cryptocurrency that's backed by nothing and can be created by anyone.

两个常见问题是:为什么有人会购买一种没有任何支持的加密货币?为什么有人会购买一种可以由任何人创建的加密货币?

These aren't only fair questions, but smart ones.

这是很聪明的问题。

Here's the thing to remember about money: It's whatever people mutually agree it is.

关于金钱,有件事得谨记:钱可以是任何事物,只要所有人都共同承认它

In the past, beads, cowrie shells, silver, gold, and of course paper, have all been used as money.

在过去,珠子,贝壳,银,金,当然还有纸,都有被用作钱的经历。

You'll notice that none of them have any intrinsic value.

你会注意到他们没有任何内在的实用价值

At the end of the day, a sack of flour has more practical value than a $100 bill or even a bar of gold.

毕竟,一袋面粉比100美元的钞票甚至是一条黄金更具实用价值

And yet, we value both far more than a sack of flour. That's the mutual agreement we've all come to.

然而,这两者的价值可比一袋面粉贵重多了。这是所有人达成的共识。

When you think about it, it's not that rational.

你认真想想,就会觉得这不像表面上看起来的那么合理。

How does a piece of green paper or a bar of yellow metal hold more value to a human than a sack of flour that can be used to feed a family for weeks?

一张绿色的纸或一块黄色的金属片,对人来说,怎么可能比一袋面粉更有价值?这袋面粉能供一家人吃上几周了!

Because we all agree it does.

因为我们都同意(它就是更有价值)。

In my opinion, paper currency may be the most irrational form of money in human history. At least you can decorate yourself with gold, silver, beads, and cowrie shells.

在我看来,纸币可能是人类历史上最不合理的货币形式。至少你可以用金,银,珠和贝壳装饰自己。

Not only that... There's a limit to how much gold, silver, and shells that can be found. There's no limit on the amount of paper money that can be created.

不仅如此……能被发掘的金,银和贝壳的数量是有限的。能印发的纸币数量却没有限制。

The closest thing to true money (outside of food) is gold. Gold meets several historical rules that we use to judge value.

除了食物之外,最接近真正的金钱的是黄金。黄金符合我们用来判断价值的几个历史规则。

It's prized for its beauty. It's difficult to find. It's expensive to extract. It's also a scarce resource.

它的定价基于它的美丽珍贵:寻找很困难,提取很昂贵,并且它是一个稀缺的资源。

But there are problems with gold, too.

但是黄金也有问题。

We have to trust that the refineries that certify the gold's purity are telling the truth.

我们必须相信,证明黄金纯度的冶炼厂说的是实话。

Gold is also difficult to transfer (think of carrying around bags of gold coins or chests of gold bars).

黄金也很难转移(想想随身携带一袋金币或装着金条的箱子)。

And that makes it virtually useless as a practical medium of exchange in daily life.

而这使得它在日常生活中几乎无法作为一种实用的交易媒介。

What I mean is you can't buy a new car, house, or even a book with gold bars.

我的意思是,你不能用金条买一辆新车,房子,甚至是一本书。

Here's How Cryptocurrencies Are Creating Value

加密货币如何创造价值

Well-designed cryptocurrencies have many features that humans look for when measuring value. Let's talk about them now.

精心设计的加密货币具有很多在我们衡量价值时追寻的特性。现在我们来谈谈这些特性。

Pre-Programed Scarcity

预先设定的稀缺性

Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are pre-programmed to create a set amount of coins. Once this limit is reached, no new coins will be created. This creates scarcity.

比特币这类加密货币已经预先编制成只有一定数量。一旦达到此限制,将不会产生新币。这就制造了稀缺性。

For instance, the algorithm that governs Bitcoin will create no more than 21 million Bitcoins.

例如,比特币算法规定了最多有2100万个比特币。

Think about this... There are 35 million millionaires in the world. That means if every millionaire wanted to own an entire Bitcoin, they wouldn't be able to.

这么想:世界上有3500万个百万富翁。这意味着,即使每个百万富翁只想要拥有一个完整的比特币,也是无法做到的。

There literally is not enough to go around.

事实就是没有足够多的币来流通。

Contrast that with paper money.

与纸币对比一下。

With paper money, there's no limit to how much can be created. However, gold is finite. That limits how much new gold can be refined each year.

创造多少纸币是没有限制的。但是,黄金是有限的。这限制了每年可以提炼多少新的黄金。

You can see that cryptocurrencies actually have more in common with gold than with paper money.

你可以看到,加密货币与黄金实际上有更多的相同之处,而不是纸币。

Difficult to Counterfeit

很难伪造

Cryptocurrencies rely on a technology called the "blockchain."

加密货币依赖于一种称为“区块链”的技术。

This blockchain uses cryptography to secure transactions. These complex mathematical algorithms make counterfeiting cryptocurrencies almost impossible.

区块链使用密码学来保证交易的安全性。这些复杂的数学算法使伪造加密货币几乎不可能。

Now, compare that to cash.

现在再来和纸币对比一下。

It's estimated that almost a quarter-billion dollars of counterfeit paper money sloshes around the U.S. every year.

据估计,每年有近 25 亿美元的伪钞在美国流通。

What about gold?

那么黄金呢?

Fake gold will never fool an expert. But counterfeit gold could be passed off to someone with an untrained eye.

假黄金没法欺骗专家。但假冒的黄金可能会被传给一个没有经过培训的人。

Cryptocurrencies share two important criteria that give value to traditional assets: scarcity and irreproducibility (hard to counterfeit).

加密货币符合两个用来衡量传统资产是否有价值的重要标准:稀缺性和不可重复性(难以仿造)。

These are necessary to create value. But you need something else, too...

这些是创造价值的必要条件。但是你也需要别的东西...

A Final Criterion

最后的条件

For a thing to have value, it needs one final thing: Some form of utility.

一样东西要具有价值,它需要满足最后一个条件:某种形式的实用性

Even art (which some will argue is worth little more than the sum of its parts), creates massive utility by stirring deep emotions in the hearts of people that can appreciate it.

即使是艺术(有些人认为,和艺术品的组成部分的价值之和比起来,它的价值没多多少),通过在能够欣赏它的人的心中激起深刻的情感,创造了巨大的效用。

That emotional response is a very valuable form of utility. It's the reason people spend billions on art annually.

这种情绪反应是一种非常有价值的实用性。这也是人们每年花费数十亿美元购买艺术品的原因。

So, what type of utility do cryptocurrencies provide?

那么,加密货币提供什么样的实用性?

Rapid Transfer of Funds

资金的快速转移

Unlike the transfer of gold or even cash, cryptocurrencies can transfer value almost instantly. And they can do it at very low costs.

与黄金甚至纸币的转移不同,加密货币几乎可以即时转移价值,而且成本非常低。

On the Bitcoin network, you can send $50,000 for about $3. The receiver will get it in about 10 minutes.

在比特币网络上,发送 50,000 美元的手续费大概是 3 美元。接收者在大约10分钟内就能拿到。

Compare that to a traditional wire transfer.

比较一下传统的电汇。

The fastest I've seen a wire hit is 24 hours. The cost to send a domestic wire can vary from $35 to $70. International wires can eat up 1%-15% of the total amount of money sent.

我见过的最快的电汇到账是 24 小时。国内电汇的费用从 35 美元到 70 美元不等。国际电汇则可能扣除汇款总金额的1%-15%。

As far as sending gold, it takes 3-14 days domestically and is very expensive.

至于递送黄金,国内需要 3 - 14 天,而且非常昂贵。

So, being able to quickly send money anywhere in the world is a very valuable utility that cryptocurrencies possess.

所以,能够在世界任何地方快速汇款,是加密货币所具有的非常有价值的用途。

Free from Government Control

免受政府控制

Over the years, both gold and cash have been either confiscated or severely restricted through capital controls.

多年来,黄金和现金都通过资本管制被没收或严格限制。

Capital controls are government restrictions on your ability to access or move your money.

资本管制是政府限制你访问或转移你的资金的能力。

Even here in the U.S., we have capital controls. For instance, you can't just stroll through airport security with more than $10,000 in cash.

即使在美国,我们也有资本管制。例如,你不能携带超过1万美元的现金在机场过安检。

Unless you declare it, you're breaking the law.

除非你申报,否则你就违法了。

Even though it's our money, the government insists we report when and where we're moving it. This is an outrageous demand that we accept because there are no alternatives.

尽管这是我们的钱,但政府坚持要求,当钱被转移的时候我们必须要报告转去了哪里。这是一个无耻的要求,我们接受只是因为没有其他选择

That is until cryptocurrencies came around.

直到加密货币出现。

With cryptocurrencies, we are in complete control of our own funds. We can store them on our own devices free from government intervention.

用加密货币,我们可以完全控制自己的资金。我们可以将它们存储在我们自己的设备上,不受政府干预。

If you store your cryptocurrencies properly, it is impossible for the government to confiscate or control them.

如果你正确存放你的加密货币,政府不可能没收或控制它们。

This is a truly liberating utility that is very valuable.

这是一个真正自由的工具,非常有价值。

Highly Secure Decentralized Payment Network

高度安全的分散支付网络

One common criticism of cryptocurrencies is that anyone can make one. How can something have value if you can create a currency with just a few lines of code?

针对加密货币的一个普遍的批评是,任何人都可以制作一种币。如果只用几行代码就可以创建一种货币,它如何能称得上有价值?

This criticism is spot on.

说到点子上了。

But remember, anyone can buy a printing press and start making his or her own paper money. What stops people is that no one would use it. The same is true in crypto. Only currencies that gain widespread adoption actually take off.

请记住,任何人都可以购买印刷机,并开始印发自己的纸币。问题是没有人会使用它。对密币来说也是如此。只有获得广泛采用的货币才能起飞。

One of the ways we measure this widespread adoption is by looking at the number of computers that are in a cryptocurrency network. For instance, more than 7,000 separate computers are running the Bitcoin blockchain.

我们衡量这种广泛采用的方法之一是通过查看加密货币网络中的计算机数量。例如,超过7000台独立的电脑正在运行比特币区块链。

That widespread adoption is a vote of confidence by the market. It's a way for us to objectively identify "good" cryptocurrencies from bad ones.

这种广泛采用是市场信心的表现。这是我们客观鉴别密币“好坏”的一种方法。

As the network of users grows, so does the volume of cryptocurrency being transacted. This in turn creates a network effect that snowballs.

随着用户网络的增长,加密货币的交易量也在增长。这样交替进行,就会创造一个雪球效应。

For instance, $143 million per day of Bitcoin changed hands in 2016. Today, it's over $4 billion per day.

例如,2016年比特币每天有1.43亿美元的交易,现在每天超过40亿美元。

The widespread use of this currency is giving it value. Thousands of people are coming together and agreeing to exchange goods and services for Bitcoin.

这种广泛使用就给了这种货币价值。数千人聚集在一起,同意交换比特币的商品和服务。

That is the true test for any currency. Are people accepting it? The answer is a resounding yes.

这是任何货币真正的考验。人们接受吗?答案是充满信心的肯定。

For these reasons, we believe you'll see more people continue to adopt cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

基于以上原因,我们相信你会看到更多的人继续采用像比特币一样的密币。

They offer utility that neither cash nor gold can.

它们提供了现金和黄金都无法提供的功能。

A Second Type of Crypto Asset

第二种加密资产

Earlier, I told you there are two types of crypto assets. The first is cryptocurrencies (which I've just explained to you).

前面我告诉过你有两种类型的加密资产。第一个是加密货币(刚刚向你解释过)。

The second type of crypto asset goes by several names. Some folks call them "application coins" others call them "utility coins."

第二种加密资产有几个名字。有些人称他们为“应用币”,有人称之为“实用币”。

The terms are interchangeable.

这些名称是可以互换的。

So, what is a utility coin?

那么,什么是实用币?

A utility coin is a crypto asset that is used to secure or deliver a service.

实用币是用于预订或交付服务的加密资产。

Our biggest gains have come from investing in utility coins.

我们最大的收益就来自投资实用币。

That's why I want to spend the rest of this email talking about them. If you can understand how utility coins work, you can make a fortune in them.

这就是为什么我想在剩下的部分谈论他们。如果你能理解实用币是如何工作的,那么你可以在它们身上发财。

In my Palm Beach Confidential service, I have readers that are transforming $300 investments into six-figure windfalls by getting in early on utility coins.

在我的棕榈滩保密服务中,我有读者正在通过早期投资实用币来将 300 美元的投资转化为六位数的横财。

Three Themes Driving the Value of Utility Coins

推动实用币价值的三大主题

Over 2017, I've been to conferences in Silicon Valley, Boston, Austin, Las Vegas, New York City, Berlin, London, and Copenhagen.

在 2017 年,我在硅谷,波士顿,奥斯汀,拉斯维加斯,纽约,柏林,伦敦和哥本哈根参加过会议。

During these conferences, I've met with hundreds of people. I've met crypto project founders, venture capitalists, government regulators, central bankers, Fortune 500 executives, hedge fund managers, and digital currency miners.

在这些会议中,我遇见了数百人。我遇到了加密项目创始人,风险资本家,政府监管机构,中央银行家,财富500强企业高管,对冲基金经理和数字货币矿工。

These are the three primary themes that are driving their research, development, and investment decisions:

这些是推动其研究,开发和投资决策的三个主要主题:

Fat protocols

丰盈协议

Interoperability

互通性

Scaling

扩展性

If you don't know what these terms mean, don't worry. I'll explain each for you right now.

如果你不知道这些术语的含义,别担心。我现在就为你解释。

Theme 1: Fat Protocols

主题 1:丰盈协议

What is a "fat protocol"?

什么是“丰盈协议”?

I had to ask myself the same question.

我也问过自己同样的问题。

I stumbled upon this theme at the Consensus 2017 event in New York City in late May. And I heard about fat protocols in more detail in Berlin.

5月下旬,我在纽约市的“2017年共识”活动中偶然发现了这个主题。我在柏林更详细地了解了脂肪协议。

Let's start with protocol. In the technology world, a protocol is a set of rules.

让我们从协议开始。在技术领域,协议是一套规则。

For instance, the internet is governed by two protocols: TCP and IP.

例如,互联网由两个协议管理:TCP和IP。

TCP stands for transmission control protocol. This is a set of rules that governs the exchange of packets of data over the internet.

TCP 代表传输控制协议。这是一组管理互联网上数据包交换的规则。

IP stands for internet protocol. This is a set of rules that governs sending and receiving data at the internet address level.

IP 代表互联网协议。这是一组管理在互联网地址级发送和接收数据的规则。

IP by itself is something like the postal system. It allows you to address a package and drop it in the system, but there's no direct link between you and the recipient. TCP/IP, on the other hand, establishes a connection between two hosts, so they can send messages back and forth for a period of time.

IP 本身就像邮政系统一样。它让你提供一个包裹的地址,并将其放到系统中,但你和收件人之间没有直接的联系。另一方面,TCP / IP 在两个主机之间建立连接,所以它们可以在一段时间内来回发送消息。

Nobody owns TCP/IP. But imagine if someone did. How valuable would the protocols be?

没人拥有 TCP/IP。不过想象一下,如果有人拥有了呢?这得有多大价值?

Think about this...

想想看...

According to a Harvard Business Review article, more than half the world's most valuable public companies have built business models on TCP/IP.

根据“哈佛商业评论”的文章,世界上最有价值的上市公司中,有一半以上,其商业模式都建立在 TCP/ IP 之上。

That's $5.4 trillion dollars in value traced right back to TCP/IP.

这是 $5.4 万亿美元的价值,和 TCP / IP 直接相关。

Think of the biggest names in the internet space: Amazon, Google, Facebook, Priceline, eBay, Netflix, Uber, etc... They are applications, not protocols.

想想互联网领域的大牌:亚马逊,谷歌,Facebook,Priceline,eBay,Netflix,Uber 等。它们是应用,还不是协议。

In short:

简单地说:

Applications (or "apps") are computer programs that run specific tasks. They include simple desktop apps like calculators, clocks, and word processors to mobile apps like media players, games, instant messengers, and maps.

应用程序(或“应用”)是执行特定任务的计算机程序。它们包括诸如计算器,时钟和文字处理器等简单的桌面应用程序,以及媒体播放器,游戏,即时通讯软件和地图等移动应用程序。

Google's YouTube, Facebook's Messenger, and Microsoft Word are examples of popular web applications. Companies own their applications.

Google 的 YouTube,Facebook 的 Messenger,和 Microsoft Word 是流行的 Web 应用程序的例子。公司拥有其应用程序。

Protocols are the rules computers use to communicate with each other. TCP and IP are examples of widely used protocols. Unlike applications, no one owns computer or internet protocols.

协议则是计算机之间用来互相通信的规则。TCP 和 IP 就是被广泛使用的协议的例子。不像应用程序,没有人对计算机或互联网协议拥有所有权。

For instance, the Ethereum platform has created a protocol for the issuance of crypto tokens (among many other things).

例如,以太坊平台创建了一个发行密码令牌(以及许多其他事情)的协议。

Ethereum has created rules that make it easy to launch and manage digital tokens. That's why more than 50% of new tokens coming to market are using the Ethereum platform.

以太坊制定了这些规则,可以轻松启动和管理数字令牌。这就是为什么超过 50% 的新令牌正在使用以太坊平台。

As more projects are launched on the Ethereum network, the demand for ether tokens increases.

随着更多项目在以太坊网络上启动,对以太令牌的需求也在增加。

Said another way, the more the protocol is used, the more valuable the ether tokens become.

换言之,协议使用越多,以太令牌就越有价值。

These protocols are called "fat" because most of the economic value and profits will be captured at the protocol level.

这些协议被称为“丰盈”,因为大部分经济价值和利润将在协议层面获得。

All the tokens launched on the Ethereum platform are only worth $6.8 billion. But the Ethereum platform itself is now worth $34 billion.

在以太坊平台上推出的所有令牌只值 68 亿美元。但以太坊平台本身现在价值 340 亿美元。

Even as more and more companies go "public" on the Ethereum platform, we think Ethereum will be more valuable than the applications that end up running on it.

即使越来越多的公司在 Ethereum 平台上“上市”,我们认为以太坊将比最终运行的应用程序更有价值。

The reason is that the more the protocol is used, the more demand is generated for the underlying protocol token. That's how utility coins like ether gain their value.

原因是使用的协议越多,底层协议令牌的需求就越多。这就是像以太这样的实用币如何获得价值。

Theme 2: Interoperability

主题 2:互通性

Hundreds of new blockchain ledgers are emerging. On top of that, there are hundreds of established centralized ledgers and payment networks.

数百个新的区块链账本正在出现。在这之上,已经建立了数百个集中式帐本和支付网络。

These established payment channels are used by banks and payment providers. We're talking about giants like JPMorgan, PayPal, Visa, and MasterCard.

这些已建立的支付渠道由银行和支付提供商使用,比如摩根大通,PayPal,Visa 和万事达卡这样的巨头。

As the world migrates from a centralized to a decentralized model, how do you get these different networks to communicate with one another?

随着世界从集中式模式向分布式模式转变,要如何让这些不同的网络相互沟通?

This is a huge problem. That's why we think the next boom will be in companies that allow different ledgers to "talk" to each other.

这是个大问题。这就是为什么我们认为下一个繁荣起来的将是允许不同的帐本相互“交谈”的公司。

Imagine there's an English speaker, German speaker, and French speaker in the same room. And no one speaker understands any other speaker. This is the problem right now with blockchains and payment networks.

想象一下,在同一个房间里有一个英语者,一个德语者和一个法语者。没有人发言者了解其他发言者。目前,这是区块链和支付网络的问题。

They all "speak" different languages.

他们都“说”不同的语言。

But what if somebody could create a technology that would allow these different languages to understand one another?

但是如果有人能够创造出一种能让这些不同语言相互理解的技术呢?

In the tech world, this is called "interoperability."

在科技领域,这被称为“互通性”。

The Difference Between Financial Ledgers and Blockchain Ledgers

财务账本和区块链账本之间的区别

Today's financial system requires a lot of overlap. Financial institutions spend a lot of time and money maintaining their systems and even more time and money making sure their systems agree with other systems on common facts.

今天的金融体系需要很多重叠。金融机构花费大量的时间和金钱维护他们的系统,然后花更多的时间和金钱确保他们的系统与其他系统在共同的事实上保持一致。

This is done so that there is no single point of control or single point of failure. The solution is decentralization. It eliminates single points of failure and the necessity for each institution to duplicate the data.

这样做是为了确保不存在单点控制或单点故障。解决方案是去中心化。它消除了单点故障和每个机构复制数据的必要性。

Imagine a version of eBay or PayPal that can work with virtually any digital or fiat payment system. That's the goal of interoperability.

想象一个几乎可以与任何数字或法定付款系统通用的 eBay 或 PayPal。这就是互通性的目标。

Here's the key takeaway: The utility coins that are building in easy-to-use interoperability will be the ones that become highly valuable.

要记住的关键是:那些建立在易于使用的互通性上的实用币将会变得非常有价值。

Theme 3: Scaling

主题 3:扩展性

While in Berlin, I met a group of executives from drug giant Merck.

在柏林时,我遇到了药品巨头默克集团的一些高管。

These folks oversee Merck's European innovation group. They are tasked with identifying and getting management "buy-in" on implementing innovative technology.

这些人管理默克的欧洲创新团队。他们的任务是辨识和管理“买进”正在实践的创新技术。

They have a terrific grasp of the blockchain. They know it could potentially save Merck millions of dollars in costs.

他们对区块链理解得非常好。他们知道这可能为 Merck 节省数百万美元的成本。

The problem is none of the current blockchain platforms scale. Meaning they just can't operate at the speed and level of complexity Merck requires. This is a common complaint. I've heard it from executives in London, Boston, Silicon Valley, New York City, and now Berlin.

问题在于,目前没有任何区块链平台可以扩展,这意味着他们无法以默克所需的复杂程度和速度运作。这是一个常见的抱怨。我从伦敦,波士顿,硅谷,纽约市的高管那里都听说过,现在柏林这里也是。

The two most popular blockchains, Bitcoin and Ethereum, can only handle seven and 15 transactions per second, respectively. Like the old 56k telephone modems of the '90s, that's awful. But it would be a mistake to think that it will stay that way forever.

比特币和以太坊是两个最受欢迎的区块链,但比特币每秒只能处理7个交易,以太坊每秒15个,就像90年代的 56k 电话调制解调器一样,这太糟糕了。但认为它会永远保持这种方式是错误的。

Just as those modems eventually transformed into the high-speed internet we enjoy today, it's only a question of time before Bitcoin and Ethereum crack the scaling problem.

就像这些调制解调器最终转变成了我们今天享受的高速互联网一样,比特币和以太坊在解决扩展性问题上需要的只是时间。

Bringing It All Together

总结

The future for cryptocurrencies and utility coins is bright.

加密币和实用币的未来是光明的。

As more people look to take control of their money, they'll turn to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and others.

随着越来越多的人想要控制自己的资金,他们会转向以比特币为代表的加密货币。

As I track the developments in fat protocols, interoperability, and scaling, I'm seeing more and more widespread adoption of utility coins like ether and many others.

当我跟踪丰盈协议,互通性和扩展性的发展时,我看到以太和其他很多实用币被越来越广泛地采用。

But remember: These are still very early days.

但请记住:现在仍是早期。

We'll see massive volatility ahead. It's unavoidable. The key to thriving in the chaos of the early days of a new technology is to remain rational.

我们将看到巨大的波动,这无可避免。在新技术萌芽的早期混乱中兴旺发达的关键是保持理性。

Friends, hear me when I tell you that it is irrational to expect the crypto market to be stable.

朋友们,请相信我,期望密币市场稳定是不理性的。

Any market this new is highly unstable. The way we manage and profit from that instability is to use small position sizes. With crypto assets, we rely on asymmetric risk.

任何如此新兴的市场都是非常不稳定的。我们管理并从不稳定中获利的方式是使用微小头寸。对加密资产而言,我们依靠不对称风险。

With crypto we can swing for the fences without putting the rest of our existing wealth at risk. This is a rare opportunity for ordinary people to make life-changing gains without having to take life-changing risk.

使用密币,我们可以尝试获得高额回报,而不会把我们现有的其他财富置于危险之中。对于普通人来说,这是一个难得的机会,可以获得足以改变生活现状的回报,而不必承担同等的风险。

That means we risk a small amount of money for a massive potential payoff. This strategy is working well for my readers.

这意味着,我们只需承担损失一小部分金钱的风险,但却可能获得一笔巨额的潜在回报。这个策略在我的读者中收效甚好。

The best part is this trend is just beginning. Right now, the entire crypto market is valued at about $195 billion. Novogratz, the hedge fund billionaire I mentioned earlier, sees the entire market growing to $5 trillion. That's 2,400+% upside ahead.

最好的部分是这个趋势才刚刚开始。目前,整个密币市场价值约为 1950 亿美元。我刚才提到的对冲基金亿万富豪 Novogratz 认为,整个市场将会增长到 5 万亿美元。这意味着未来将有超过 2400% 的上涨空间。

That means we have many more opportunities in front of us to make life-changing gains.

这也意味着我们面前有更多的机会来改变人生。

So get out there. At the very least, buy some Bitcoin and Ethereum.

所以行动吧,至少买点比特币和以太币。

Remember, you don't have to own a whole Bitcoin. You can own just a fraction of a coin.

记住,你甚至都不需要拥有一个完整的比特币。你可以只拥有几分之一。

And as all these developments unfold – along with others like them – I'm confident that one day you'll be grateful you took action.

随着事态逐步发展 — 和其他相关的事件一起 — 我有信心,在将来的某一天,你会因为今天采取了行动而感谢自己。


写在后面:

在翻译的过程中我注意到,微信群中的版本是2017年9月7日发布的,而这个在线公开的版本的发布日期是11月12日。经历了中间几个月的疯狂发展,两版之间又有一些值得注意的变化:

1. 新版中删除了和 monero 相关的内容,仅仅谈到了比特币和以太坊;

2. 几个谈论到的当前价值和涨跌的数字有了很大变化;

3. 原版中有一些具体的回报数字被删除了。

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