Economist译文:2016年全球经济形势预测

2016-01-01

从2009年经济衰退结束后,新兴市场为全球经济提供了最大的动力。但是在2016年发达国家将说明他们将为这十年的全球增长作出最大贡献。

金砖国家的状况都非常糟糕。

巴西政府腐败无能。

俄罗斯也好不到哪里去,已经陷入一系列军事恶斗中。

中国在2016年的表现还可以——如果你相信中国政府的统计数字的话。据估计,它的GDP 将增长6.5%。实际上显然会更低。(呵呵呵。。。。。)

中国已经深陷债务危机泥潭,对于货币和股票市场管理不善,震惊了全球经济。

印度看起来充满活力:它将增长超过7%。但是比2005到2010年平均增长8.5%的情况相比要差。

整体来看,金砖国家2016年将只对全球增长贡献16%。


新兴市场感觉不妙啊

与此相反,发达国家看起来将非常稳健,如果不出意外的话。

美国经济将扩大增长至2.5%,就业市场将连续第六年创造至少200万个新岗位——上次出现这个情景还是1990年代。

欧洲将从经济衰退和通货紧缩的恐惧中走出来,欧元区最明显的定制炸弹,希腊,现在的事态已经平息。

2016年全球经济整体上预计增长2.7%,从2011年至今它的增长率没有超过3%。

除了美国之外,对大多数国家而言,2016将是补救、复苏、改革和风险并存的一年。

全球预测

EMERGING markets have given the global economy most of its muscle since the recession ended in 2009. But in 2016 rich countries will account for their largest share of global growth this decade. The BRICs are in a sorry state. Brazil’s government has been both incompetent and corrupt. Russia’s has been no better, with a dose of military malevolence thrown in. China will perform reasonably well in 2016—if you believe the government’s numbers. By that reckoning, its GDP will rise by around 6.5%. The reality almost certainly will be lower. China is mired in debt and has mismanaged its currency and stockmarkets, sending shocks through the global economy. India looks perkier: it will grow by more than 7%. But that is worse than its average of 8.5% growth between 2005 and 2010. All said, the BRICs will make up only 16% of worldwide growth in 2016.

Against all this, the rich world will look solid, if unspectacular. America’s economy will expand by around 2.5%, and the American jobs machine will crank out at least 2m new positions for a sixth straight year—the first time that has happened since the 1990s. Europe will no longer be threatened by recession or deflation, and the euro zone’s most obvious time-bomb, Greece, has been defused for now.

The world economy as a whole is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2016, and it hasn’t managed an increase of more than 3% since 2011. Save for America, 2016 will be another year of repair, recovery, reform and risk for most countries.

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