查理芒格的思考清单(双语版)

CHECKLISTS

Helpful for achieving goals, making choices, solving problems,evaluating what is likely to be

true or false etc.

如下准则有助于达成目标,做出选择、解决问题、判别真伪。

Use notions

- Use the big ideas that underlie reality

- Understand what something really means

- Simplify

- Use rules and filters

- Know what I want to achieve

- Find and evaluate alternatives

- Understand consequences and their consequences on the whole

- Quantify

- Search for and base things on evidence

- Think things through backward

- Remember that big effects come from large combinations of factors

- Evaluate the consequences ifI'm wrong

要利用确定的概念或某个想法

使用有事实做依托的大想法

明白事情的真正意义

简化

利用规则并且学会筛选

知道我要达成的目标

寻找并且考量替代方案

了解各种后续情况以及整体结果

定量

搜寻各种根据,并在此基础上行事

能够反向思考

记住,要有大的成效,就需要诸多因素的总和

评估如果做错了会有什么后果

What is the issue?

- What's the question? What is this really about?

- What's the essence or nub of the issue? What is then the key question?

- Relevant? Solvable? Important? Knowable? Utility - applicability?

- Do I understand what the subject is all about? In order to have an opinion on a subject I need

some relevant data and basic knowledge about the subject, otherwise just say:"I don't know".

- Is my judgment here better than others?

- What must I predict here and is it predictable?

- Is a decision needed? What happens if I don't deal with this? Is this something I can do

anything about? Should "I" do this?

- Over what period of time am I considering this issue? Where am I at present?From whose

point ofview?

- Simplify by deciding big "no-brainer questions" first and beg infrom where I am.

问题的解决

问题是什么?事情的实质是什么?

事情的核心或重点在哪里?相应的主要问题是什么?

什么是相关的?什么是可解决的?什么是重要的?什么是可知的?什么是可以适应的(Utility-applicability)?

我了解事情的全貌吗?为了使自己对事情有想法,我需要一些相关数据和基本知识储备,否则我就得承认“我不知道”。

我的判断比其他人好吗?

我必须对什么做出预测?它是可预测的吗?

需要做出决定吗?如果我不当机立断,会发生什么?为解决此事,我能做什么?“我”应该去做吗?

我对此问题的思考花了多少时间?此刻我思考到了哪一步?处于谁的立场上?

简化问题,先解决“不需大脑思索”的大问题,然后从自己的境地开始思考。

Understand what it means

- Translate words and ideas in terms I understand. Do I understand what words and statements

really mean and imply? Does it mean anything? Will it help me make useful predictions on

what is likely to happen?

- Do I understand how and why something works and happens? What is it doing? Why does

it do that? What is happening? How and why is this happening? What is the consequence of

this (observation, finding, event, experience...)?

- Definitions and implications?

理解背后的含义

把语言和各种想法翻译成我明白的方式。我能理解所用的语言和结论的真正含义和暗示吗?它意味着什么?它是否有助于我对未来做出有用的预测吗?

我是否了解事情发生和运转的方式和原因?它正在产生什么影响?为什么会有这样的影响?现在的情况如何?怎样及为何会发生如此情况?其结果会是什么(会有什么观察、发现、事件、体验)?

Filters and Rules

- Use filters incl. rules and default rules -what test(s) can I make?

- Adapt to my psychological nature, abilities, advantages, and limitations

- Consider values and preferences and therefore priorities and what I want toavoid

过滤和规则

利用规则和缺省规则来筛选——我可以如何检测?

改变规则,以适应我的心理特征、心理承受能力、心理优势和心理局限。

考虑我的价值观和偏好,由此判断事物的轻重缓急,以及希望规避的事情。

What do I specifically and measurable want to achieve and avoid and when and why?

- What future "value" do I want to achieve? Target numbers? Target effects? Time horizon?

- Assume I have already reached my target. What would this imply in numbers andeffects?

What must then have been achieved? Is it (target) reasonable? Is it reasonable if I  reverse

this to the present?

- Do I have ways to measure to what degree my goal is being achieved? Key variables or

components of yardstick?

- If I achieve this what will happen? Do I want that to happen?

- Can I break my goal into short-term goals with deadlines?

- What is my real reason for doing this? Is it because I want to or because I have to? Have I

stated my goal from internal and external realities or am I biased now or influenced by some

psychological forces?

- Can I express my goal in a way that makes it easier to see how it is going to be achieved?

- Is this the true goal for what I want to achieve?

我具体想达成和避免的是什么,什么时候达成,原因为何?

就数字而言,我想获得什么样的价值?目标数字是什么?目标效果是什么?所设定的时间范围是什么?

假设我已经达到了目标,那么这个目标如何反映在数字和效果上?接下来又需要达到什么?这个目标是否合理?如果从目标逆向回溯到现在,是否可行?

我是否有办法衡量目标的完成程度?这个标准的关键指标是什么?

如果我达到了目标,随之而来的会是什么?那是我希望得到的吗?

我可否把大的目标分成若干有期限的短期目标?

我做此事的真正原因何在?是因为我想这样还是因为我不得不这样?我在阐述目标时,是基于内外两方面的现实呢,还是受到了某些心理力量的影响?

我能否简短地阐述我的目标,以使人更容易明白我达到此目标的方式?

这是不是我真正希望达到的结果?

What is the cause of that?

- To achieve my goal I must understand what causes my goal to be achieved

- What is the equation for goal and what evidence do I have for that?

- What don't I want to achieve? What causes non-goal and what can I do to avoid that? What

must I not do or what must I avoid?

- What variables influence the system? What are the critical forces and variables, the ones

that account for the main outcome? What is the key unknown? What is the certainty with

which I can evaluate, optimize ... the different variables?

- Which variables are dependent on other variables (or situation, environment,context,

timing, behavior) and which ones act independently of each other?

- What force causes a variable to be achieved? What produces the force(s)? Are there short 

and long-term forces? What is their relative strength? How do they combine and interact

and what are the effects? How can I get many forces to operate together in the same

direction? What lack of force would destroy the system? What produces this force? How

predictable are they? What can the forces in place rationally expect to cause?What forces

are temporary and which ones are permanent? How will the system change as the forces

that act on the variable change?

- How resistant is the system to a change in the variables and/or forces? What are the likely

wanted and unwanted short- and long-term consequences (on numbers and effects)of

changes (up/down) - scale, size or mass, strength, intensity, length, time horizon, environment, 

participants etc. - in the variables or forces? What happens when a number of small causes 

operate over a long time? What are the consequences if a forceacts on the

variable over a long time? Which force could change it? What is needed to create a critical

mass? What forces when added can create a critical mass? How? Will something else happen

when I change a variable or force? What must happen for a force to change? Can a change

produce other consequences (observe that I am interested in effects on thewhole system  and 

the final outcome)? Does a change in one variable make a dramatic difference in

outcome? Will the properties also change? What are the consequences if therelation

between the variables changes? What is the change point? Barriers? Catalyst?Tipping

point? Inflection point? Break point? Limits? Is there a time lag before effects happen?

Feedback? What can speed up the cause? What are the critical points when the effects get

reversed? What can I change in the equation and what can others change? How?Who?

When? Which variables must I change to achieve goal? How can I measure the amount of

change? Degree of sensitivity if I change the assumptions? Effects on goal and path? What

will happen if I hold one variable constant? If I at the same time increase one variable and

decrease another? Net effect? If I change one variable or force at a time? What is it in the

environment that can change the situation? What other advantages and disadvantages can

I achieve if I optimize one of the variables? What must happen to cause a change in outcome?

 Is it still a variable if I change the conditions?

- Are there exceptions to the equation and why? What conditions are required to achieve

goal? Has my goal different cause short-term and long-term? Is the cause time-dependent?

Can I deduce the cause by observing the effects? Have I looked upon the systemfrom

different angles and viewpoints? What does the measurement of the subject depend on?

- What is the major constraint that limits the goal from being achieved?

成因何在?

为了达到目标,我必须知道能让我达成目标的各种成因。

通过哪些要素的组合可以达成的目标?我如何佐证此公式?

什么是我不希望获得的结果?可能促使“非目标”出现的原因是什么?我能如何规避?我必须不做什么,或者必须避免什么?

整个系统要运转起来,会受哪些变量的影响?这些关键性变量是什么?主要的未知因素何在?有哪些确定的因素可以帮助我评估和优化这些变量?

哪些变量有赖于其他变量(或情形、环境、背景、时机、行为)?哪些变量是独立于其他变量的?

什么外力才能促使某一变量出现?这些外力来源于何处?是短期还是长期外力?其相对优势是什么?这些外力之间如何组合、互动,效果会如何?我如何才能让诸多外力作用于共同的方向?缺乏了哪个外力会毁掉整个系统?这个外力来源于何处?可预测度有多高?这些外力如果出现,会促发什么样的合理结果?哪些外力是暂时性的,哪些外力是永久的?作用于变量的这些外力若发生变化,整个系统会发生怎样变化?

在这些变量和外力发生变化时,系统抵制这些变化的惯性有多强?变量和外力产生变化(上升或者下降)后,可能导致哪些希望的和不希望的短期和长期结果(数字或效果),如规模、体积、强度、密度、长度、时间维度、环境、参与者等?一组较小的外力如果长期发生作用,会怎样?如果作用于变量的某一外力长期发生作用,结果会如何?什么外力能加以改变?需要什么才能达到临界质量?添加了哪些外力后能达到临界质量?如何发生作用?如果我改变了一个变量或者外力,会导致其他事情发生吗?什么情况会让一个外力发生改变?这个改变会产生其他结果吗(请注意我感兴趣的是整个系统的效果和最终结果)?一个变量发生了变化,会对整体结果带来戏剧性的改变吗?属性是否也会随之改变?如果变量之间的关系发生变化,结果会如何?促发改变的那个点是什么?障碍是什么?催化剂是什么?引爆点是什么?拐点在哪里?暂停点在哪里?局限是什么?有多久时滞才能等到效果发生?反馈是什么?什么能令此成因加速?效果若要发生逆转,临界点在哪里?对这个公式,我能做什么改变,其他人能做什么改变?如何做?谁来做?什么时候做?我需要改变哪些变量才能达成目标?我如何度量变化的程度?Degree of sensitivity if I change the assumptions?对目标和路径会产生什么影响?如果某一变量保持不变,会如何?我在提高某一变量的同时降低另一变量呢?会有怎样的网络效应?如果一次只改变一个变量或者外力呢?外部环境中有什么会改变我的处境?如果对其中一个变量进行优化,会产生其他什么优势和劣势?什么才能导致最终结果发生变化?如果我改变了条件,变量还会成立吗?

这一公式会否出现例外,为什么?需要哪些条件才能达成目标?Has my goal different cause short-term and long-term?这个成因是否依赖于时间条件?通过观察效果,我能否追溯其成因?我有否采用不同的角度和立场来审视整个系统?对主题的考量依赖于什么东西?

限制我达成目标的主要力量是什么?

What available alternatives do I have to achieve my goal?

- Judge alternatives in terms of goal, subjectin question, rules and filters, cause and effect,

human behavior, evidence, counter evidence, simplicity and opportunity cost ofmoney,

time, other resources, effort, understanding, risk and mental stress.

- What evidence (incl. models) do I have that these alternatives are most likely to achieve

goal?

- Are they depending on time horizon or event?

- What are the likely consequences of each action? What possible outcomes can happen?

Likelihood? How desirable is each consequence?

- Do I forego any future opportunities if I make a specific action now?

有没有现成的替代方案可以帮助我达成目标?

通过目标、主体问题、规则、因果、行为、佐证、反证、资金的机会成本、时间、其他资源、精力、理解力、风险和精神压力等因素,来对其他替代方案进行判断。

我有什么依据(包括模式)来判断这些替代方案很有可能帮我达成目标?

这些因素有赖于某些特定的时间点或者事件吗?

每一个行动可能产生的后果是什么?可能产生什么效用?可能性有多高?你对每个结果的期待值有多高?

如果现在采取某些行动,我是否会放弃未来的一些机会?

What are the consequences?

- Find out which alternative are most likely to achieve my goal by estimating their likely

consequences

- If I do this, what will happen? Why will this not happen?

- What are the likely (logical) wanted and unwanted (or unintended) consequences

(quantitative and qualitative) and consequences of consequences (immediate and over the

course of a long period) of each alternative!event (proposition) factoring in relevant variables?

- What are the different scenarios and outcomes that can happen? What is likelyto happen

short and long-term based on the evidence?

- What can help me make predictions on consequences or if something is likely to be true

or false?

- What must happen for the goal to be achieved? How likely is it that the necessary events

will happen and happen to me? What does the probabilities favor? What will happen if I

reverse the proposition?

- What are the uncertainties that can significantly influence the outcome? What unintended

consequences are there due to repeating effects, complications... ?Is the net effect positive?

Does the consequences predict anything else? What else does this mean?

- What are the consequences if this is true or false?

- Have I considered the whole system from different viewpoints? Have Iconsidered social,

financial, physical and emotional consequences? What are others likely to do?What are my

experiences of earlier behavior? What happens when others do the same?

结果是什么?

通过对结果的预估,寻找最可能帮助我达成目标的替代方案。

如果我做出了一个选择,什么将随之发生,什么又不会发生?

每个替代方案(逻辑上)可能产生的想要的结果或者不想要(或不希望)的结果是什么(定性并定量)?结果之后的次生结果(短期内或者长期内产生的)会是什么?

会产生什么样不同的情形和结果?在这样的依据下,会产生什么长期或短期的效应?

什么可以帮助我预测事情的结果或其真伪?

为了达到目标,什么事情必须发生?必要事件发生以及发生在我身上的可能性分别有多高?如果我逆向而行,会有什么后果?

什么不确定因素会极大影响到结果?重复出现的效应或者复杂因素会产生什么不希望的结果?

错误的选择和正确的选择分别会产生什么后果?

我是否从不同的角度全面考虑了整个系统?我有否考虑过其社会、财务、生理和情感上的结果?别人可能会怎么做?依照我的经验和以前的行为,我会怎么应对?如果别人也照我这样做,会产生什么样的结果?

Bias

- Is there any reason for bias due to self-interest or psychological influences that may cause

misjudgment?

- Is this a biased statement or a fact? What are factual judgments and what are value 

judgments?

- How reliable is he? Is he competent enough to judge? Credentials? What is his purpose with

this? Does he have any motive to lie? How does he know that this is true?

偏见

个人兴趣或者心理原因带来的会导致我产生误判的偏见,有何原因可以解释吗?

我所做出的结论或者选择的事实中,是否存在偏见?事实判断和价值判断分别是什么? — 他有多可靠?他有足够的能力做出判断吗?如何加以证明?他做此判断的目的是什么?他有没有撒谎的动机?他如何判断正误?

The hypothesis

- Based on what I want to achieve; test statement implied by goal or statement for

consequences.

- For every alternative ask: Is this alternative likely to achieve my goal(true)? For proposition

ask: Is this proposition likely to be true?

- How can I test (testability) if this is true? Can I try to prove it is false before I try to see if

it's true?

- What do I need to know if! shall test this statement? I must first find out the equation for

what causes the statement to be true so I know what is the most important Ineed to know

the future true outcome of and then search for the evidence for and against that this will

be achieved. What is the statement that should be proved?

- What is the simplest hypothesis?

假设

假设需要基于我想要达成的目标,并用此假设去检验我关于结果的预估。

对每个替代方案都要问:这个替代方案可能达成我的目标吗?对每个观点都要问:这个想法是对的吗?

我如何检验某个表述的真伪?在证实之前,我能否先证伪?

要检验这一表述,我需要知道些什么?首先,我必须知道什么公式能够让我的表述成立,然后我才能知道,对于判断未来的真正结果,什么才是最重要的。其次,我要知道能够支撑和推翻这一表述成立的证据。哪些表述是需要论证的?

最简单的假设是什么?

Look for evidence and judge the evidence

- How likely is it that the key cause (for goal,non-goal, and proposition) will be achieved?

- When evaluating statements or true/false, look for meaning, motives, causes,consequences

and evidence for and against.

- If this were true what would the consequences then imply? Are the consequences of it not

being true illogical or unbelievable? Does it have any predictability?

- How and where can I find the representative evidence if this is true?What is given? What

are unquestionable truths? Will the test or other ways of measure give the same results when

repeated (reliable)? Can I test for consequences (verifiable)? Is the evidencebased on what

is known and have I interpreted the data correct (valid)? What evidence do Ihave? Evidence

against? What grounds do I have for accepting that evidence? Weight of evidence?What is

the quality of the evidence? How credible is the evidence? Dependent on time,

environment? Too small sample? Does the statement agree with the available evidence?

Does it violate any scientific laws or laws of nature?

- What representative information do I have? What is happening by observation?Can I do an

experiment to confirm my guess? Does it agree with experiment?

- What is the track record (case rate, base rate frequency, variability,average rate, degree of

randomness, my own experiences, environment, players, and other relevant factors for the

case) on what happened (worked and not) in the past? Is there any reason to believe that

this record isn't representative for what is likely to happen in the future?What can make

the future a lot different than the past? What's been permanent and what hasn't?

- How long can this continue? What is the major cause(s) now? What force(s) can make it

continue, initiate a change, or stop it and why? Is it likely?

- If I  get evidence that is the opposite ofmy previous convictions I must ask:How does this

happen? What is going on here? What evidence do I have? What grounds do I have for

accepting the evidence?

寻找依据,判断依据

(促发目标、非目标和意见的)主要成因出现的可能性有多高?

对判断做出真伪评判时,去寻找其意义、动力、成因、后果和正反依据

如果判断是正确的,那么后果将意味着什么?后果会不会超乎逻辑或者不可思议?其中有任何可预测之处吗?

我怎样并且从哪里才能找到支持某一判断的代表性证据?已知的有哪些?哪些东西是毋庸置疑的?若反复加以检验或用其他方式的考量,会出现相同的结果吗?我能否对结果进行检验?这些依据都是基于已知因素吗?我是否正确理解了各项数据?依据在哪里?反面依据呢?我认可依据的理由是什么?这一依据的权重是多少?What is the quality of the evidence?可信度有多高?是否紧密依赖于外部环境?样本是否太少?结论跟手中的依据相符吗?有没有违反科学法则或自然法则?

我有什么代表性的信息?对其加以观察会出现发生什么?我能够通过实验来证实我的猜测吗?

对于将会发生什么(可行还是不可行),有没有相关的过往纪录(案例评估、变异性、平均率、随机程度、自身经历、环境、伙伴与对手,以及其他相关的因素)?有什么理由相信这些纪录对未来会发生的事情并不具有代表性?什么能让未来与以往大不相同?什么是恒在的,什么不是?

这能持续多久?现在的主要成因是什么?什么外力能让其持续、能带来改变、或者造成阻碍,为什么?可能性有多高?

如果我拿到了能够推翻我之前信念的依据,我必须自问:为什么会这样?现在是什么情况?我拿到的是什么样的依据?我接受这一依据的理由是什么?

Disprove my (or others) conclusion by thinking like a prosecutor

- Consider causes for misjudgments

How can I test and prove that my idea and conclusion is wrong? What reasons arethere

why I might be wrong? Where can I find the evidence that suggest I am wrong? How

credible is my evidence? What facts and evidence disagree with my conclusion/idea?

What major assumptions have I built the case on? Are they built on reality? Are their

consequences logical? Has anyone proved that my assumptions are right? What are the

consequences if my beliefs and assumptions are wrong?

What have I ignored or overlooked? Better alternatives? Have I ignored evidence? Have I taken

into account the limitations when humans are involved? What factors are uncertain and

why? Have I just projected present trends? What have I misinterpreted? Have Iused the right

definitions? Did I consider and combined all the relevant factors? Have I used the

appropriate measure/yardstick? Did I go wrong in the measurement? Have I confused cause

and correlation? What about if my goal is shaped by what I believe is true butit isn't? Are there

random or systematic errors? What other causes can explain my results? Have I considered the

whole system and that interacting parts sometimes canvary in unexpected and unwanted

ways?

- Bias for my own ideas? Is my ego getting in the way ofmaking an intelligent decision? Will

I really beat the historical average/record? Have I looked for contrary effects?

- What do I not see? What is the significance of this? Does an inversion of the assumption

lead to a logical absurdity? Is the opposite more likely? Is there any contrary evidence? What

evidence can prove it is false (or not achieving goal)? What experimental (or experience,

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observation... ) evidence are there that it's false? More evidence infavor of that? What

causes it to be false?

- Meaning? Can I show that the consequences ofit being true are unbelievable?What is the

implied effect if! trace it out mathematically? Would the opposite of the statement be more

likely? If yes, the proposition is probably false.�

像检察官一样对我(或其他人)的结论提出反驳

思考会导致误判的原因

如何检验和证明我的结论是错误的?我可能犯错的理由是什么?从哪里可以找到证明我错误的依据?这个依据可信吗?有没有什么事实和依据与我的结论/观点不符?

我做的分析基于哪些主要假设?是基于真实情况吗?假设的结果符合逻辑吗?有人证明过我的假设是正确的吗?如果我的想法和假设是错误的,结果会是什么?

我有否忽视了什么?有没有更好的选择?我是否忽视了某些依据?当有人力介入时,我是否考虑到了其局限性?什么因素是不确定的,为什么?我是否只考虑到了目前的趋势?我有否误解了什么?我使用了正确的定义吗?我是否综合考虑了所有相关的因素?我采用了合适的衡量标准吗?我有否混淆了成因和相关性?如果我的目标是基于某个我认为正确但其实是错误的理念,会如何?其中会有随机性的或者系统性的错误吗?对于我所得到的结果,有没有其他原因可以解释?我有否考虑过,整个系统或者某些互动环节的可能会出现我不希望发生的变化?

我的想法是否存在偏见?在做出一个极具智慧的决定时,我的自我是否过于膨胀?我真的会创造历史纪录吗?我有否看到可能产生的反作用?

我没看到的是什么?其重要之处是什么?如果逆转我的假设,会否得到极度不合逻辑的结果?这个可能性是不是更高?有没有反例?什么依据可以证明我是错的(或者证明我无法达成目标)?实验(或者经验、观察)得出的证据中,有哪些是错误的?有更多支持性的证据吗?这些错误是如何导致的?

意义何在?我能否向人们证明正确假设所得到的结果是不可能出现的?如果我用数学的方式准确描述出来,其隐含的影响是什么?相反的方向是不是更有可能?如果是,那么现在的想法就是错误的。

What is the downside?

- How can I be hurt? What could possible gowrong? What can turn this into a mistake?

What would the consequences be?

- How often do things go wrong? Surprise factors? What can happen that will dramatically

change the outcome?

- What is the worst thing that could happen - the nightmare scenario? How likely is that?

What will I do if it does? What are the consequences if things go from bad to worse? And

what are then the consequences?

- What are the consequences if I get two or three forces acting in concert against me? Which

alternatives net effects are least worse?

- Execution risk?

- What do I least like? What am I least sure of?

- Can an advantage give me unwanted consequences? How do I lose an advantage?

- How can I structure the "system" to minimize the influence of negatives? Antidotes to what

I don't want happen? Do I have a backup plan for surprises? Can I correct it?What rules

can I install to achieve goal and avoid non-goal? Is there a built-in safety factor?

负面影响表现在什么地方?

我会因何受到伤害?什么可能向错误的方向发展?什么会让事情走偏?如果这样,结果如何?

事情出错的频率如何?会否有意料之外的因素?什么事情发生后会极大改变整体结果?

可能发生的最坏的境况是什么?发生的可能性有多大?如果不幸发生了,我该怎么做?如果事情继续恶化,后果会是什么?这个后果的后果又会是什么?


如果我受到多种外力的阻碍,结果会如何?哪种有效效应是危害最低的?

执行中会面临什么风险?

我最不希望出现的是什么?我最不确定的是什么?

一个看上去是优势的因素有没有可能让我得到不希望的结果?我会怎样失去某个优势?

怎样构建系统才能将负面影响降到最低?有修正办法吗?发生了意想不到的事情,我有没有备选方案?我能加以修正吗?设定什么样的规则可以帮助我达成目标而规避不希望的结果?有没有内在的安全隐患?

What are the consequences if I am wrong?

What key thing am I betting on? Do I risk whatis important for me for something of relative low

 utility for me?

What is the cost (dollars, time, mental stress etc) of being wrong weighted against the

benefit or value of being right compared to the next best available opportunity?

If I do this because I believe the consequences are in my best interest/it'strue but I turn out

wrong/it is false, what are the short- and long-term consequences (actual loss and

opportunity cost loss) for my goal and can I handle them and/or reverse them?

If I don't do this because I believe the consequences is not in my best interest/it's false but

I turn out wrong/it's true, what are the short- and long-term consequences formy goal and

can I handle them and/or reverse them?

- If I don't take a decision at all now because I don't believe it is necessary but I am wrong,

what are the short-and long-term consequences for my goal and can I handle them and/or

reverse them?

如果我错了,后果会怎样?

我把赌注押在哪些关键要素上?我是否拿对我重要的东西去冒险,换取的有可能是对我效用相对较低的东西?

与现有的次优机会相比,我的正确决定所带来的益处和价值是什么,错误决定的成本(金钱、时间、精神压力等)是多少?

我这样做是因为我坚信其结果能最好地实现我的利益;或者我相信能符合我利益,但后来证明我错了;或者它根本就不符合我的利益。上述三个可能性给我的目标带来的短期和长期的后果会是什么(实际损失和机会成本)?我能否加以应对和/或还原?

我不这样做是因为我坚信其结果不能最好地实现我的利益;或者我相信不符合我利益,但后来证明我错了;或者它根本就符合我的利益。上述三个可能性给我的目标带来的短期和长期的后果会是什么(实际损失和机会成本)?我能否加以应对和/或还原?

如果我因为认为不必要而此刻不采取任何行动,但时候证明我错了,这给我的目标带来的短期和长期的后果是什么?我能否加以应对和/或还原?

What is the value?

- What is the utility or preference of each ofthese alternatives to me? Which alternative is

most likely to achieve my goal and ultimate objective? Is it really more attractive than the

other choices I have?

- What can I use as criteria to judge my alternatives against each other?

- What do I like best if I weigh the alternatives against each other by assigning their

characteristics numerical values?

- Will it make a difference? Make an impact? How willing am I to accept certain out comes?

价值是什么?

对我来说,每一个替代方案的实际效用和优势是什么?哪个方案最有利于我达到目标?它是否真的比其他选择更有吸引力?

我用什么标准来判断替代方案之间的优劣?

通过对每个替代方案的特点进行打分,我最看好的是哪一个?

这个选择能不能让我脱颖而出?能不能造成一定的影响?我是否愿意接受某种特定的结果?

What yardstick can be used to measure progress or to measure things against?

- What yardstick(s) do I use? What is the yardstick by which the decision is made?

- How can I easily measure to what degree my goal are being achieved? What indicators can

I track?

- Does the "system" give people an incentive to behave in away sothat my goal will be achieved?

Or does it work against the goal?

采用什么标杆来衡量事情的进展?

我采用了哪些标杆?用作决策依据的标杆是哪些?

我怎样才能容易地评估我向目标推进的程度?有哪些指标可供我对照?

我所构建的系统能否激励人们按照最有利于达成目标的方式去行动?或者,这个系统是否会阻碍目标的完成?

How act now?

- Can I execute? What specific action(s) do I have to do (must do) now? What do I need to

do first?

Who is going to do what, where, when, why and how?

Have I decided on where the critical points (time and effects) are?

Have I installed some kind of control stations and rules? Why is this the right rule? What

are the consequences if I don't install this rule (or change my way of doing something)?

What administrative and practical actions must I do due to the rule? How much time will

it take to follow the rule? Can I control how I follow the rule? Can I installa time-limited

rule? Where does the rules not work?

现在如何行动?

我可以执行吗?我现在必须开始采取的特定行动是什么?首先需要做的是什么?

谁做什么,什么时候做,在哪里做,为什么做,以及如何做?

我知道决定性的点(时间和效果)在哪里吗?

我是否设置了一定的控制体系和规则?为什么这些规则是合适的?如果我不设置这些规则(或者不改变我做事的方式),结果会如何?这个规则要求我必须采取哪些管理和实践的举措?要遵循这个规则,会花费多少时间?我能否决定自己如何遵循这些规则?我可以设置一个有时间限定的规则吗?这些规则在哪些地方会失效?

Have I made an active decision?

- AmI prepared to change the decision to reflect new information or new insights on what

works and not?

- Is another decision contingent on a specific event happening? Have Ievaluated the issue as

it exists today? Is the underlying rationale for the decision still there? What new evidence

is there that can change the likelihood? Does my way of measuring progress give any clue

of what is likely to happen in the future? Events - relevant or irrelevant? Does it make any

difference for my goal (independent of time horizon)?

我所做的是一个灵活的决定吗?

我是否准备好了改变决定,以适应新的信息和新的判断?

如某一特定事件发生,是否需要做出新的决定?如此问题今天就存在,我有否对其进行过评估?支持此决定的理性思考现在是否存在?有什么新的证据证明这个可能性能可以得到改变?我衡量进展的标准,是否能让我判断之后将要发生的事情?哪些事件是相关的,哪些是不相关的?我的目标会否因此发生改变(若不考虑时间长度)?

Post mortem or learning from mistakes

- How well did it or didn't it work out? Did I act? Did I do what I said? What did I think at

the time? Original reasons compared to reality?

- Why did I go wrong? How? Where? Opportunity cost?

- How can I figure out if this is going to continue? Have I acted on mymistakes? How act

to not repeat? What should I have done and didn'tdo? What should I concentrate on? What

must I improve? What must I learn?ager

死后反思还是边学习边成长?

事情进展的情况有多好或者有多不好?我有否采取什么行动?我说到做到了吗?当时我是怎么考虑的?初衷和现实的出入在哪里?

为什么我会犯错?犯错的过程是什么?在哪里犯错了?机会成本有多大?

我如何判断现状是否会照此继续下去?我对错误有没有采取行动?如何才能不重演错误?我该做却未做的是什么?我应该把精力集中在哪里?我必须提高和学习的地方在哪?

What exactly is the problem

- What do I want to achieve? Why don't I achievemy goal? What happen? How does it

happen? Where does it happen and not? When does it happen and not? Who's affected?

- What causes my goal? What interferes with the factors that cause my goal?Symptoms or

core cause? What is the single most important limiting factor for reaching mygoal? What

principles or assumptions do I base this on? What are the consequences if theyare wrong?

Assuming no limitations, what would be the best course of action? Other consequences?

WHAT ARE THE LIKELY CONSEQUENCES

问题的本质在哪?

我想达到的是什么?为什么我没有达成目标?发生了什么?怎么发生的?在哪里发生的?什么时候发生的?谁被影响了?

我的目标因何而达成?能够促使我达到目标的因素会受到什么干扰?这些因素是标还是本?对我达成目标构成限制的因素中最重要的是哪一个?我把目标建立在什么原则和假设上?如果这些原则和假设有误的话,结果会如何?假若不存在任何限制,最好的行为链是什么?其他可能的结果是什么?

WHAT ARE THE LIKELY CONSEQUENCES CONSIDERING HUMAN BEHAVIOR?

人类行为纳入考量后的结果

What is causing me to do this?

What are my present environment and my state of mind? What is rewarding for me to do/say

if I want to avoid pain? What do I perceivetobe the consequences for me? Are they painful

or pleasurable? What psychological tendencies will influence me? Are they likely to cause a

misjudgment?

什么促使我这样去做?

目前我所处的环境和我的心理状态如何?如果避免了痛苦,我能获得什么好处?我如何判定什么是结果?它们让我难受还是愉悦?哪种心理趋向会影响我?这些因素会导致我做出误判吗?

What is the context?

What does the environment and participants(incl. size) look like? Who is the decision-maker

and what are his criteria for making decisions? Who benefits and who pay? Who is responsible

for outcome? Who and what are influencing the participant's perception ofreality?

做决策的语境是什么?

环境和参与者(包括其规模)是什么状况?谁是决策者,他做决策的标准是什么?谁获益,谁买单?谁为结果负责?参与者对现实结果的看法会受什么影响?

Can I judge him?

Can I judge his character? What are hisexperiences? What temporary or permanent

characteristics influence him (age, cultural background, health, mood... )?What

environmental (present internal and external) or situational factors influence him? Does he

want tosell me something?

我能对他做出正确的判断吗?

我能判断他的角色是什么吗?他的经历如何?哪些临时性或者永久性的特征在影响着他(如年龄、文化背景、健康情况或者心情)?什么环境(内部或者外部的)或者处境会影响他?他是否意图向我出售什么?

What is in his self-interest to do?

What is logical for him to do? What is rewarding for him to do if he want to avoid pain? What

does he perceive as painful? What does he fear and why? What does he want more of or what

does he not want to be taken away? What "resources" motivates him?His health, job, family,

position, reputation, status, power? What would give him an incentive ordisincentive? What

reward or penalty system causes his behavior? What is he rewarded (perceived)for doing?

What is he punished (perceived) for doing? How is he measured? How does heperceive the

consequences of non-goal? Is ittohis advantage/interest to believe (or not to believe)

something?

他的个人利益在哪里?

什么会符合他的逻辑?他如果避免痛苦,可以获得什么益处?他将什么视为痛苦?他害怕什么,为什么?他想多得到一些什么,不想失去什么?什么“资源”会带给他动力?是他的健康、工作、家庭、职衔、声名、地位还是权力?什么会激发他,什么会打击他?什么会(被他视作)是对他的惩罚?他可以如何被评估?他怎样看待“非目标”的后果?对某事的相信(或者不相信)是否能给他带来优势/利益?

What are the psychological tendencies and shortcuts that influence him and can cause misjudgment?

What bias affects his conclusions? What external influences is there, that will likely influence

him? What temptations are there that appeal to his self-interest? What activates his behavior?

什么心理取向或缺陷会导致他做出误判?

什么偏见会影响他得出的结论?有什么外在原因可能会影响他?哪些诱惑会符合他的个人利益?什么会激发他去行动?

What are the consequences?

What are the consequences for me? Will my goal still be achieved? Is what is rewarding for

him also rewarding for me? Is the system set up so that the relevant participant's interest

coincides with my goal? Does it "pay him"tomake the wrong decision? Does he understand

the consequences of his behavior? What are the short-and long-term consequencesfor him?

What are the lines of responsibility? Does he have the responsibility for the consequences?

What happens when others do the same?

结果是什么?

我最终的结果是什么?能达到我的目标吗?有利于他的东西是否也有利于我?我们建立的系统是否能让相关参与者的利益与我的目标相一致?他的错误决定是否会由这个系统来买单?他是否知道他的行为的结果?对他来说,短期或长期的结果是什么?责任链是什么?他对结果是否负有责任?如果换一个人也做同样的事情,会如何?

What system would I like to have if the roles were reversed?

How would I like to be treated if the roles were reversed? What would cause me to do the

things I want him to do? What are the behavioral tendencies I can use to change his behavior?

How shall I behave if! want to guarantee non-goal? Can I now turn around and avoid those?

如果交换角色,我希望构建什么样的体系?

如果将我的角色调换,我希望怎样被对待?什么会促使我去做我希望他做的事情?我能通过什么行为取向来影响他的行为?如果我执意要达成“非目标”,我需要怎么做?把角色转换回来后,我能够避免以上事情发生吗?

Is this the right system?

Can I appeal to his self-interest? Can I appeal to fear of losing reputation, money, status,

family..? Can I change his present associations to pain? How can I organize the system to

minimize certain influences? Have I told him what I expect? Have I inspected what is done?

Have I supported things done well? Does he have the necessary skills, knowledge and the

relevant information? Does he know what is expected of him? Does he know the goal, how

he will reach it and why that is the best path? Can he measure his progress? Is it related to his

daily activities? Does he have the responsibility and the authority? Is his reward aligned with

the goal? What rules can I install that will consider human weaknesses? Can Iinstall a reverse

rule? What changes must be made? Who will call for them? How likely is that?What are his

values? His goals? What does he consider to be result? What is his perception of the

consequences if he behave like we want him to and if he doesn't?

系统正确否?

我可以满足他的个人利益吗?我能否消除他对失去声名、金钱、地位,以及家庭的恐惧?我可以改变他对痛苦的看法吗?怎样架构体系才能使某些影响最小化?我有否告诉过他我的期望是什么?我有否检查过已经完成的事情?对于成功完成的事情,我是否给出了鼓励与支持?他掌握必需的技能、知识和相关的信息吗?他知道自己肩负的期望吗?他是否明白无误地知道目标是什么,如何达到,以及为何这是最优途径?他会评估自己的进度吗?这与他的日常行为有关吗?他是否负有责任并获得了授权?他所能得到的奖励是否和目标一致?我可以设定什么样的规则来应对人类共有的局限性?设置一个相反的规定会怎样?哪些改变是必须发生的?谁对此负有责任?发生改变的可能性会有多大?他的价值观是什么?他的目标?他会将什么视为结果?如果他如我们所希望的那样去做,他会如何看待结果?如果他不照我们希望的那样去做呢?

BUSINESS EVALUATION

业务评估

Filter 1 - Can I understand the business - predictability?

- Reasons for demand- How certain am I that (and can explain why) people are likely to

continue buy this type of product or service in the future? What has happened in the past

and what is likely to happen in the future? Cyclically in demand?Capacity versus demand?

- Return characteristics- Industry and company return characteristics and change over the

last ten years?

- Industry structure- No of competitors and size? Who dictate the termsin this industry?

What is needed to make money in this industry? Position within the industry? Do I know

who is going to make the money in this market and why?

- Real Customer-Who decides what to buy and what are hisdecision-criteria?

过滤器1:我能理解业务吗——可预测性

需求的原因——我有多确定(并且能解释为何如此确定)人们将来仍会继续购买这类产品或服务?过去的情况是什么,未来可能发生什么?需求是否呈周期性?生产能力与需求的对比是什么样子?

回报能力——产业和公司的回报能力,以及其过去10年的发展状况是什么?

产业结构——竞争者的数字和规模?谁在该产业中拥有发言权?要在该产业中获利,什么因素是必须的?公司在产业中的地位如何?我是否知道谁会在这个市场上获利,为什么?

真正的消费者——谁对购买行为有决定权?其决定的标准是什么?

Filter 2 - Does it look like the business has some kind of sustainable competitive advantage?

- Competitive Advantage- How certain am I that (and can explain why) they are likely to

buy the product or service from the company rather than from someone else? Are the

reasons virtually unchanged from what they were ten years ago? Are these motivations

likely to be unchanged over the next ten years?

- Value- How strong and sustainable is this advantage? Have the advantages become

stronger and more durable over the years? What can destroy or reduce them?Barriers to

entry? Brand loyalty? Vulnerable to change in demand or prices? Easy to copy?Short

product life cycle? Customer cost and incentive to switch supplier? Annual cost differential

against competition? Capital investments needed? Bargaining power? Obsolescence risk?

New customer alternatives? Change in buying habits or power? Competitor potential to

undercut prices assuming same cost structure? What is needed to make sure the advantages

stay sustainable? Growth opportunities left? Is the demand for the productlikely to grow?

Untapped unit volume demand? Pricing power?

- Profitability-Can the advantage be translated into profitability and why? How does the

company make money? How much capital is needed to produce incremental revenues?

Financial characteristics - return on capital (operating margins and capital turnover), gross

margins, sales growth, cost- and capital structure and efficiency? Normalized free cash flow?

Advantages of scale? Critical variable?

过滤器2:此业务是否有足够的竞争优势?

竞争优势——我有多确定(并且能解释为何如此确定)别人会购买我公司的产品或服务而不是其他人的?其中的原因是否10年来几无变化?在下一个10年会不会改变?

价值——我们的优势能有多强大和可持续?这些优势在若干年后会更强大更具持久性吗?什么会破坏或减少这些优势?市场进入壁垒?品牌忠诚度?受需求或价格变化的影响程度?是否容易复制?产品生命周期是否很长?客户改变供货商的成本和动机为何?每年能够抵御机竞争的价格差异(Annual cost differential against competition)?需要多大的资本投入?议价能力如何?产品过时的风险?客户新的替代选择是什么?购买习惯或购买力会有何改变?若成本结构相同,竞争对手会有多大的降价空间?需要做什么才能保持稳固的竞争优势?还有成长空间吗?市场对此产品的需求有上升的可能吗?定价能力如何?

盈利能力。竞争优势能否转化成利润,并且如何才能做到?公司怎样盈利?要实现收入增长,需要多少资本?财务特征:资本回报率(营业利润率和投入产出比)、毛利率、销售额增长、成本/资本结构及其使用效率?正常情况下的现金流是多少?有无规模优势?有无决定性的因素?

财政特征。资本回报(操作成本的富余和资本转化),毛利润,销售增长,成本和资本结构的效用率?正常的现金流?规模优势?

Filter 3 - Able and honest management?

- Is the management composed of competent and honest people that understands and

focuses on creation ofvalue?

过滤器3:能干且诚信的管理层?

组成管理团队的,是能力出众、诚实可信,并且理解和全力去创造价值的人吗?

Filter 4 - Is the price right?

- Can I buy at a price that provides a good return with a huge margin of safety measured

against other available alternatives and with evidence from facts and figures?

过滤器4:价格正确否?

我能够以比其他选择有更好回报的价格买下这个产品么?需要有事实和数据为依据。

Filter 5 – Disprove

- How can the business get killed? If the company could kill one of its competitors, who

would it be and why? If the company would go away for 5 years which competitor would

they bet on and why? How resistant is the business to adversity? Assume the company paid

out all its equity capital, would it still have any value? Could someone with the access to

billions of dollars and talent, successfully compete with the company? How much damage

could a competitor do if he doesn't care about returns? Recession sensitivity?Execution

risk? Will new technology help or hurt?

过滤器5:反证

生意会怎样被毁掉?如果公司要彻底将一个竞争对手置于死地,这个对手会是谁?为什么?如果公司继续运营下去,5年之后谁会是竞争对手,为什么?公司业务抵抗不利因素的能力如何?如果公司花光了所有的股权投资,它还会不会有价值?会否出现某人获得大量资金和人才,在竞争中胜过公司?如果竞争对手并不在乎回报,他可以对公司产生多大的破坏?公司对经济衰退的敏感程度如何?执行时所面临的风险有多大?新技术会有益还是有害?

Filter 6 - What are the consequences if I'm wrong?

过滤器6:如果我错了,结果会如何?

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