投资日记(45)2020-06-25买就买最贵的

无论生活中还是投资中

越来越相信一件事

好的东西就是贵

而且会越来越贵

它内在的价值决定了它的价格

比如房子

比如车

比如名师设计的家具

比如股票

。。。。

越是对你生活质量带来重大影响的东西

在力所能及范围内

越应该买最贵的

这样结局总是没错

稍一犹豫买了便宜的

最终往往会后悔

忘掉什么“高性价比”

那是骗人的

再说股票

一个道理

ZOOM贵吗?贵!

DDOG,CRWD。。。贵吗?贵!

茅台贵吗?贵

在你咂舌远离它们的时候

它们默默地变得更贵

贵给你看的那种贵

不是要盲目追高这些股票

也不是说这些股票不会跌

相反,它们跌起来很吓人

但是但是,它们都会涨回来

而且比便宜股票涨回来的要快得多!

一个市场上

有几千只股票

而这些股票的收入、利润、现金流、客户保有率、增长率。。。

都是最优秀的

那凭什么它们就得便宜呢?

它们贵的有道理

很简单

“物以稀为贵”

一名优异的投资人

就是要众里寻她千百度

把这样的股票找出来

适当的时候买进去

最关键的是

敢于重仓,重仓

然后

持有,持有

直到

1)业绩持续变差

2)故事改变

3)有了更好的标的,卖出它们换现金

这个世界

如果说有真理

那就是

强者恒强

贵者恒贵

信者得永生

If you listen to the conventional wisdom of the investing industry you won't make money. You WILL revert to the mean.

We invest here in companies, not systems. If you want to invest in systems have at it. One thing learned is that the low-price on-sale growth stocks all faltered, all of them, and have never come back. PURE is one that is an enigma as its business never actually faltered but improved but yet, its multiple has contracted and contracted and remains that way.

On the other hand, the stocks that the market has chosen as the highest quality have stayed expensive and over-priced … THESE COMPANIES DESTROY THE MARKET AND MAKE THE RULES OF THE VALUE INVESTORS THAT ALL THINGS RETURN TO THE MEAN IRRELEVANT. Yes, IRRELEVANT.

This is not "things are different now," this is how it has always been. Superior disruptive companies have always been expensive and they have always killed the market. That is what we attempt to identify and hold.

If instead you want to buy the market, or a general segment of the market, say SaaS, then you also have to hold the worst SaaS as well as the best. If chips then you also have to hold all the chips, etc. THAT IS NOT WHAT WE DO HERE. Well most of us, I am sure there are some who do. And nothing wrong with it. But that is not what most of us do here. And that is not what our conversations here are about.

What we do here is try to identify and invest in the leading hyper-growth disruptive businesses in the world. Through crowd-sourcing we do this systematically. And this is contrarian investing because 90%+ of the world calls us crazy for doing so. These market "darlings" that are extremely "overvalued" that will simply crash some day. "Enjoy the party while it lasts!". We are enjoying the party.

If, however, you never want to find and invest in these, or the next generation of such companies, then you need to understand that for all rules there are exceptions. A very small number of all stocks create most of all the market increases. If you want to buy the market you will have mediocre returns. If you want to buy the premium businesses of the day...well use your own judgment.

Everyone, EVERYONE will take their lumps and have to lose sometimes. However, if you go into anything only responding to fear, conventional wisdom, and that everyone reverts to the mean then why even try. Settle for mediocre. We have proven that we are not mediocre here. We are the top 1% of all investors. We do not revert to the mean, never have, and we are not stuck buying the market (thus ensuring mediocrity), and we are not stuck investing in systems.

We invest in the best growth businesses in the world. A select few. And contrary to the pompous certainty of studies that show we are all idiots, the unequivocal evidence is that… we are not!

So no, things are not "different this time," things are actually the same. If you want mediocre returns simply scare yourself into acting as if you are mediocre by investing in the mediocre or the market or a system.

Are we just lucky and a fluke? That’s what the 90% of everyone, who try to pull you back in the pack, says because you are doing better than they are? Make your own call.

Of course we understand risks. We are not daredevils! But statistics...put them into context, and then explain if those statistics are so valuable, then what is with all these outliers?

Silence. You will never hear an answer from the naysayers to explain them other than "luck".

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