二十年内比特币会成为什么样? Part2

翻译自:https://hackernoon.com/what-will-bitcoin-look-like-in-twenty-years-7e75481a798c

【致谢】本文由币乎(http://bihu.com)社区内容支持计划赞助,特此感谢。

这是第二部分

3) Decentralized Cryptocurrencies Will Become a Parallel Economic Operating System for the Planet 去中心化的加密货币将成为地球上并行的经济操作系统

Just because centralized cryptos rise to prominence doesn’t mean the decentralized cryptos will go away. Oh, many governments will try, but in the end they’ll fail to stamp them out. The reasons are simple.

中心化加密货币兴起,并不会意味着去中心化的加密货币就得因此消失。许多政府都会尝试,但最终他们会失败。原因很简单。

The same factors that make it hard to form consensus across a blockchain, make it hard for all the world’s governments to agree on anything. They won’t be able to do it. Some governments will love decentralization and others will hate it.

Even as some countries openly rail against them, many others will openly embrace decentralized cryptocurrencies, especially the ones who suffered the worst under the dominance of Europe and the US dollar over the last century.

I see the Latin American countries, freewheeling no-holds-barred globalists like Singapore, historical bankers-to-the-world Switzerland and many of the Asian and African countries welcoming decentralized crypto with open arms, if only to stick it to the current empires.

同样的因素,使得人们很难在区块链达成共识,也使得世界各国政府很难在任何事情上达成一致。他们不可能做到。有些政府喜欢去中心化,而有些政府则憎恨去中心化。
虽然一些国家公开抨击去中心化,但是另外许多国家却公开地接受去中心化的加密货币,尤其是那些在过去一个世纪中严重受制于欧洲和美元统治地位的国家。

我看到了拉丁美洲国家,自由放任的全球主义者如新加坡,有世界银行历史的瑞士,以及许多亚洲和非洲国家,他们张开双臂欢迎去中心化加密货币,如果能够坚持它,直到成为现在的(经济)帝国就好了。

If all the countries don’t agree, then decentralized cryptos are never going away, even as centralized cryptos come to power.

如果所有国家不能达成一致,就算中心化的加密货币上台,去中心化的加密货币也永远不会消失。

But to remain relevant, decentralized cryptos need to move fast. They need a killer app. Right now they’re vulnerable to attack. To really take root they need that killer app to spread virally across the globe. It’s got to be something so indispensable that people can’t imagine their lives without it. This will bring existing power players into the system and they will then use that power to defend it against attacks from outside powers.

但为了保持相关性,去中心化的加密货币需要快速行动。它们需要一个杀手级应用。现在它们很容易受到攻击。为了真正扎根,它们需要一个杀手级的应用在全球范围内广泛传播。这个应用必须是不可缺少的,人们无法想象没有它能怎么生活。这将把现有的强势参与者带入到系统中,他们将使用这种权力,抵御来自外部势力的攻击。

I outlined one of the ways that can happen in my article for gamifying the distribution of money. But that’s just one way it can play out. There are many, many more. If you’re working on a platform now, know that it’s a race against time before central cryptos take root.

在我的文章中我概述了关于金钱分配的一种方法。但这只是它能发挥作用的一种方式。还有很多很多其他方式。如果你现在在一个平台上工作,知道这是一场在中心化的加密货币扎根之前,与时间的赛跑。

4) The Killer App for Crypto is NOT a Browser 加密技术的杀手级应用不是浏览器

This is a classic example of grafting old inventions onto a new system. The Brave Browser is awesome and I bet I’ll really love it as it gets paired with BAT and/or a universal payment system that automatically swaps cryptocurrencies without the need for an exchange but I don’t see it as the final interface to the blockchain. I see it as a potential intermediate step.

这是将旧发明嫁接在新系统上的经典范例。Brave 浏览器很棒,我打赌我一定会喜欢它,因为它会搭配 BAT 和/或一个通用支付系统,不需要交易所就可以自动交换加密货币,但我不认为它是区块链的最终接口。我将它视作是潜在的中间步骤。

So what does the killer app look like?
I don’t know.
But I know it is:

  • Ubiquitous
  • Easy to use
  • Acts as a platform for everything from changing money to getting tickets to protecting privacy and information.
  • Open source

It’s also something totally new and original that expands and extends the best characteristics of the blockchain while minimizing its greatest weaknesses.
Maybe a decentralized AI assistant or attention filter? The possibilities are endless so get moving!

那么,杀手应用程序是什么样的呢?
我不知道。
但我知道它会有这些特性:

  • 无处不在
  • 易于使用
  • 作为一个万物交易的平台,从货币交换,到获取门票,并保护隐私和信息。
  • 开源

它也是一种全新的、新颖的东西,扩展区块链的最佳特性,同时将区块链最大的弱点降到最少。

也许是一个分散的人工智能助手或注意力过滤器? 有无限可能,所以行动起来吧!

5) Blockchain is Just the Beginning of Decentralized Consensus 区块链只是去中心化共识的开始

Blockchain systems are only the first successful implementation of decentralized consensus mechanisms.

区块链系统只是去中心化共识机制的第一次成功实现。

People are already inventing new ones like IOTA’s Tangle and the HashGraph.
It doesn’t really matter if both of those projects prove failures in the long run because some other project will create another method. This is virtually guaranteed.

人们已经发明了像IOTA的 Tangle 和 HashGraph 这样的新东西。
即使从长期来看这两个项目都失败了,也没什么关系, 因为其他的项目会创建另一种方法。这是肯定的。

Over the next twenty years, I predict dozens, of experimental distributed consensus protocols, capable of transaction levels that blow away Visa level processing, augmented by artificial intelligence systems.

It’s also strongly possible that none of these systems will be designed by humans.

Instead AI’s will rapidly iterate on ideas and come up with systems that no human ever could if they had a hundred years. They’ll draw their inspiration from nature and systems of insects or roots or other biological systems like proteins.

在接下来的20年里,我预测会有数十个实验分布一致的协议出现(如果不是几百个),能够处理 Visa 级别的交易水平,通过人工智能系统来增强。

很有可能所有这些系统都不会由人类来设计。相反,人工智能将迅速地迭代想法,并创造一个系统,即便人类用百年的时间,都无法创造出来。它们将从昆虫、树根或其他生物系统(如蛋白质)中汲取灵感。

One or two of these systems will come to dominate all coins and become the meta-system to rule them all, uniting many different kinds of coins and running the entire system like a massive fractal that enables countless daughter networks to flourish inside of it.

其中一两个系统将主宰所有的货币,成为统治所有货币的元系统,将许多不同种类的货币统一起来,让系统像一个巨大的分形一样运行,让无数的子网络在其中蓬勃发展。

6) Crypto Will Get a LOT Easier to Use 加密货币会变得非常易用

Today’s user experience in crypto is awful.
If I mistype something or copy and paste wrong, my money disappears forever. If there’s a software glitch I lose my money forever. If someone hacks my computer or phone my money is gone forever.

See a trend there? Make any mistake you’re toast. It’s like driving a motorcycle on the edge of a one inch mountain road with no rail.

今天加密货币的用户体验很糟糕。
如果我打错字或者复制黏贴错误,我的钱就永远消失了。如果出现软件故障,我的钱就永远消失了。如果有人攻击我的电脑或手机,我的钱就永远消失了。

看到了么? 犯了任何错误,你就完了。这就像在一条没有铁路的一英寸山路的边缘驾驶一辆摩托车。

The core wallets are slow, hard to use and ugly. When I last upgraded Ethereum, it forgot to keep my private keys so I had to go restore them all. Earlier this year I had an old Bitcoin stuck in an ancient version of Multibit from 2013. It took me a week to free it after the software mistakenly thought I had sent a transaction that was never actually broadcast.

核心钱包速度慢,难用,又丑陋。我上一次升级 Ethereum 时,它忘记了保留我的私钥,所以我必须全部恢复。今年早些时候,我有一个旧比特币,它被卡在了2013年的一个老古董版本中。我花了一个星期的时间才把它解锁,因为软件错误地认为我发送了一个从来没有广播过的交易。

Imagine these wallets going into cold storage and coming out five years later. Will they even be usable? What happens when quantum computers come out and we need to completely update the basic protocols that underscore the system?

想象一下这些钱包放在冷存储中,五年后再放出来。它们还能用吗? 当量子计算机问世,我们需要彻底更新支撑系统的基础协议时,会发生什么?

The average person will never be able to do these procedures. Zero chance. Two decades in IT taught me that people can and will screw up their machines in ways that are utterly unimaginable to tech people. Murphy’s Law rules.

普通人 会永远无法完成这些程序。一点机会都没有。过去的二十年在IT 行业的经验告诉我,人们可以也会以一种技术人员完全无法想象的方式来搞砸他们的机器。墨菲定律起着作用。

Even worse, there’s no way to reverse any transaction or to secure it against mistakes. I foresee many algorithmic methods to freeze, roll back and protect transactions, as well as ways to self-escrow money and recover stolen money. Think of them as automated versions of calling the bank and declaring a card stolen.

更糟糕的是,没有办法逆转任何交易,也没有办法防止错误发生。我预见到会有许多算法的方法实现冻结、回滚和保护交易,以及自托管资金和恢复被盗资金的方法。把它们看作是打电话告知银行信用卡被盗这一过程的一个自动化的版本。

If grandma can’t do it, forget it. Everyone is not an IT person who can bang away at the Linux terminal.

如果(一种方法)祖母做不到的话,就忘掉它。不是每个人都是能在Linux终端上操作的IT人员。

Only systems that provide all the features of the old system plus brand new features achieve mass adoption.

只有能够提供旧系统的所有特性并具有全新特性的系统,才能被大规模的采纳。

Think about CD-ROM books from the 80’s again. They had a bunch of new features, like charts and color and you could back them up.

But it wasn’t good enough because CD’s had fatal flaws. Ray Kurzweil calls this the “false pretender” phase of evolutionary development in his book The Singularity is Near. The new tech has some advantages but too many disadvantages to really make it with the wider world and replace the old technology.

再想想80年代的cd - rom书。他们有一堆新功能,比如图表和颜色,还可以备份。
但它不够好,因为CD有致命的缺陷。Ray Kurzweil 在《奇点降临》(Singularity is Near)这本书中,将其称之为发展进化的 “虚假伪装” 阶段。新技术有一些优点,但也有太多的缺点,无法真正使它与更广阔的世界共存,取代旧技术。

It wasn’t until Kindles and iPads came along that eReaders had all the old features of reading a book, such as portability and being easy on the eyes, plus new features like the ability to carry a thousand books with you at once, something no dead tree could compete with, that it could really take off.

直到 kindle 和 ipad 的出现,电子书阅读器才具备一本书的所有旧特性, 如便携性和易读性, 并具有额外的新功能 -- 用死去的树做成的纸质书籍无法与之竞争的功能,如能够一次就随身携带一千本书等, 直到此时,电子阅读器才真的开始腾飞。

Cryptos must follow a similar path from fatally flawed to bringing untold new powers to people and businesses to acheive world dominance.

I also see many of the kinds of systems we really need arising from the desire to pass digital money down to your children. For that we will need ad-hock banks formed with groups of people as needed or algorithmic banks and bullet proof multi-signature wallets with decentralized cloud or foglet services to act as the final arbiter.

加密货币必须遵循类似的路径,从致命的缺陷发展到给人们和企业带来数不清的新的权力,以获得世界主导地位。

我也看到了许多我们真正需要的系统的产生,是由于人们想要把数字货币传给他的孩子。为此,我们需要 ad-hock 银行,由人们根据需要来组成,或者算法银行,以及防弹的多重签名钱包,由去中心化的云服务或 foglet 服务承担最后仲裁。

It won’t be enough to simply shard up your keys and give them to trusted friends or loved ones. That is a first pass solution. Friends stop being friends, people get divorced or die or worse. We need something better and completely automated.
Think about how hard it would be to pass your Bitcoin down to your loved ones now. What if you died tomorrow or got hit on the head and forgot your password?

Even if you plan for it, it kind of sucks too.

只是把你的密钥分送给值得信赖的朋友或爱人是不够的。这是第一种继承的解决方案。朋友会闹掰,人们会离婚、死亡甚至更糟。我们需要更好的、完全自动化的方式。想想现在要把你的比特币传给你的爱人有多难。如果你明天死了,或者,头部被打中而忘记了密码怎么办?

即使你做好了应对计划,也会很糟糕。

You would have to create a will, lock a backup of your private keys and wallet in a safe, give the password to an estate lawyer and hope that he doesn’t make off with it or the USB stick or Trezor/Nano doesn’t die. You could also create a multi-signature wallet with some friends and family members and hope someone doesn’t check a different version into Github with a backdoor or bug and screw it up. All of it is ugly and immature. It’s unacceptable.

你必须创建遗嘱,把你的私钥备份和钱包锁在保险箱里,把密码交给一个不动产律师,希望他不会用它,或者是不会死去的u盘或 Trezor / Nano。你也可以和一些朋友和家人一起创建一个多签名的钱包,希望有人不会把一个包含后门或bug 的不同版本签入到Github中,然后搞砸。所有这些方式都是丑陋和不成熟的。无法接受。

By the way, if you want to start a cyrpto business that everyone will need in the future, solve the inheritance problem. Everyone will pay you gladly.

I foresee drag and drop smart contracts and AI generated wills with self-escrowing money. In essence, the blockchain itself will be the bank and the customer service department, perhaps using your biometric markers and third party proof-of-staked groups or a decentralized AI that can verify your loved ones, as well as trigger events like your end of days. Automated password and key recovery will be STOP.

Whatever it looks like, we’ll need algorithmic approximations of the controls we have now for giving money to people we want and keeping it out of the hands of people who want to rob us. We also need the system to protect us from accidents, death and going nuts.

另外,如果您想要启动一项加密货币的业务解决继承问题,每个人将来都会需要。每个人都会很高兴地付给你钱。

我预测,会出现可以拖放的智能合同和人工智能产生的实现货币自我托管的遗嘱。从本质上讲,区块链本身就是银行和客户服务部,可能使用你的生物特征标记和第三方验证的权益证明(proof-of-staked )群组,或者是去中心化的人工智能来验证你的爱人,也可以由类似你去世这样的事件触发。自动密码和密钥恢复将会停止。

我们现在可以把钱给我们想要给的人,也可以让钱避免落入那些想要抢劫我们的家伙手中,我们需要算法可以实现类似的控制,不管它看起来是什么样子。我们也需要这个系统来保护我们免于事故,死亡和发疯的影响。

7) The protocols of Coins will Get Abstracted from the Coins Themselves 货币的协议将从货币本身抽离

Right now all the coins that exist are inextricably bound to their protocols.
I expect us to abstract away the protocols for exchanging, sending and receiving as well as securing, defending and storing our coins.

This will mirror the evolution of today’s servers from bare metal to virtualization to containers to serverless.

现在所有的数字货币都与他们的协议密不可分。
我希望我们能把用于交换、发送和接收的协议,以及保护,保卫和储存数字货币的协议抽象出来。

这将反映了当今服务器从裸机到虚拟化、容器、无服务器架构的演进。

To start with, most coins can’t scale. We can’t even come close to hitting Visa level transaction processing on chain, the holy grail of any crypto system and the subject of much in-fighting and controversy. Bitcoin can do 7 transactions per second at its peak.

首先,大多数数字货币不能规模化。我们甚至无法在链上实现接近 Visa 级别的交易处理,这是任何加密货币系统的圣杯,以及许多内斗和争议的主题。比特币在峰值时每秒钟可交易7次而已。

Some people have gone so far as to consider this a virtue of the coin as it encourages people to save and store it rather than send it.
That’s just absurd.

有些人甚至认为这是数字货币的优点,因为这鼓励人们保存和储存,而不是发送。
这真是荒唐。

We should be able to move the coin as fast and as far and as often as we like.
Let’s face it, the 1 MB limit is nothing but a hack. Originally Bitcoin had no limit. Then Satoshi snuck it in overnight with no mention of it and no explanation in the source code. It was most likely nothing but a ham-fisted way to prevent DDoS attacks.

我们应该能够按照心愿,快速、频繁地移动数字货币。

让我们正面事实,1mb的极限不过是一个hack。最初比特币没有限制。然后,Satoshi在一夜之间悄悄加了进去,没有提及,也没有在源代码中解释。这很可能是防止DDoS攻击的一种糟糕的方法。

We can and will come up with better flooding protections.

Are you a 1MB adherent? How about SegWit2X’s 2MB? Maybe you go for Bitcoin Cash’s 8MB block?

Wrong. All of them wrong and ridiculous.

我们可以并且将提出更好的保护措施。
你是1MB的追随者吗? SegWit2X 的 2 mb 怎么样? 也许你追随比特币的8MB 区块?
错。所有这些都是错误和荒谬的。

According to the folks at the Lightning Network if we had seven billion people doing a mere two transactions a day it would take:

按照闪电网络的成员所说,如果我们有70亿人每天只做两笔交易,那将是:

24 GB blocks
3.5 TB/day
1.27 PB per year

24 GB 大的区块
每天 3.5 TB
每年 1.27 PB

We need to think differently and evolve beyond petty nonsense to design real solutions. To survive Bitcoin and crypto must change. It’s got to be easy to integrate new defenses, newer cryptographic algorithms when quantum computers come knocking and better speeds and innovations.

We can’t just rest on the laurels of the Satoshi vision and assume he thought of everything.
He didn’t.

我们需要思考不同的方式,超越琐碎的无用的东西,去设计真正的解决方案。为了生存,比特币和加密货币必须做出改变。当量子计算机来敲门,有更好的速度和创新时,集成新的防御系统,新的加密算法会是很容易的。

我们不能仅仅停留在对 Satoshi 想法的赞美上,并且假设他考虑到所有的事情了。
不,他没有。

And frankly, who gives a fuck what Satoshi thinks? He left the project. If he really wanted to guide it he could have stuck around like Linus did with Linux. But he didn’t. He left it up to the rest of us to figure it all out.

坦白地说,谁 TMD 知道 Satoshi 怎么想的? 他离开了这个项目。如果他真的想要引导它,他就可以像Linus一样,在 Linux 项目上留下来。但他没有。他把这件事留给了我们其余的人来解决。

So let’s really start to do that because the current system won’t stand or will just become dominated by mega-payment processors just like the system we have right now.

因此,让我们真正开始做吧,因为当前系统不能持久,或者像我们现在的系统那样,会被巨型支付处理器所统治。

One way to do that is to abstract all the protocols and run all the older coins as something equivalent to virtual machines or containers. Then the rules are separate from the coins themselves.

一种方法是抽象出所有的协议,并将所有的旧加密货币作为类似于虚拟机或容器的东西运行。规则与货币本身分开。

That’s just one way, but to really become the promised breakthrough technology, blockchain needs real innovation.

这只是一种方法,但为了真正成为所承诺的具有突破性的技术,区块链需要真正的创新。

Either way, people need to think quick, or we’ll still be debating 1 MB versus 2 MB while the CryptoRuble and CryptoYuan blow past us.

We’ll also need this because it will become necessary to defend against hostile actors and APTs (advanced persistent threat) protocol level attacks. Think the Great Firewall of China attacking or blocking transactions by screwing with packets and headers with state level man in the middle attacks. The NEM architecture is a good first step, as it includes firewall like protection for nodes.

But it needs to go further to stop even more insidious and devastating assaults and it can’t take fours years and a hard fork to implement the solution.

无论哪种方式,人们都需要快速思考,否则我们仍将在争吵 1 MB与2 MB的问题,而 CryptoRuble 和 CryptoYuan 会从我们身边呼啸而过。

我们需要这么做,因为我们将需要防御敌对者和APTs(高级持久威胁)协议级别的攻击。想想中国的 GFW ,会攻击和阻止交易,采用的方式是国家级别的中间人攻击来混淆数据包和报头。NEM的架构是很好的第一步,因为它包含了对节点的类防火墙的保护。

但它需要更进一步,以阻止更阴险和更具破坏性的攻击,而且不可以需要花上数个四年的时间和硬分叉才能实现这个解决方案。

The best solutions will likely be externalized security rule chains downloaded to all nodes in the network that act as intrusion detection, firewalls and protocol inspectors and AI based auto-evolving rulesets and countermeasures.
Think Neuromancer’s ICE.

最好的解决方案很可能是外部化的安全规则链(设计),它被下载到网络中的所有节点上,用于入侵检测、防火墙和协议检查器以及基于AI的自动进化规则集和对抗措施。
想一想 Neuromancer 的 ICE 项目。

8) We will have Four Dominate Meta Coins, Plus Fifty to One Hundred Minor Coins, and Infinite Virtual Variations of These Coins, Plus State Coins

会有四种元货币主导,再有五十到一百种小货币,以及这些货币的无限虚拟变种,另加国家加密货币

Right now we’re making coins for everything.
Got an identity platform like Civic? Make a coin.
Created decentralized DNS? Make a coin and ICO!
Building a scratch-your-ass on the blockchain app? You need a coin my friend!

现在我们在为每件东西制造数字货币。
想要像思域(Civic)这样的身份平台? 造币吧。
想创造分散的DNS ? 造货币,发ICO !
想在区块链app上抓屁股(scratch-your-ass)? 你需要造个加密货币,朋友!

Actually you don’t need a coin.

实际上,你并不需要一个货币。

Coins will start to shake out into various meta categories. At this point I can only see four types of coins needed, with a blockchain of blockchains (or post-blockchain tech) seamlessly swapping them as needed to consume services:

货币将会分成不同的元类别。目前,我看到只需要四种类型的数字货币,有一条区块链的区块链(或后区块链技术),可以无缝地交换,以消费服务:

  • Deflationary Saver Coin

  • Inflationary Spender Coin

  • Action Token

  • Reward Token

  • 通缩的存储货币

  • 通胀的消费货币

  • 行为代币

  • 奖励代币

Deflationary coins are for hoarding and investing. They will rise over time and benefit savers. Everyone needs this kind of investment and it’s the reason Bitcoin started in the first place.

通货紧缩的货币是用来囤积和投资的。他们会随着时间的推移而升值,使储蓄者受益。每个人都需要这种投资,这就是比特币最开始出现的原因。

An inflationary coin mirrors the dollar today. Nobody likes spending Bitcoin on a flat screen TV only to realize that they paid $175,000 for it a few years later as the price of Bitcoin rockets up. We need stable, spendable coins. Imagine this as the classic “store of value” Paul Krugman is always bitching about and know that we actually do need this to buy and sell every day goods.

通货膨胀的货币对应的是今天的美元。没有人喜欢把比特币花在平板电视上,却在几年之后发现,随着比特币的价格上涨,他们竟然花了175000美元。我们需要稳定、可使用的货币。将它想象成经典的“保值”作用(Paul Krugman一直抱怨的那样),我们知道我们确实需要它(通胀货币)来买卖日常商品。

An action token is for actions on the network that should always be free such as voting or sending a text message. These are not microtransactions. Resetting my password on something should not cost the equivalent of two pennies. As the EOS folks say “If you went to Amazon and it cost three cents to load the page, nobody would load the page.”

行为代币用于在网络上采取行动所用,它应该始终是免费的,像投票或发送一条短信。这些并不是微交易。重设密码不应该花费相当于两便士的代价。正如EOS的成员所说的: “如果你访问亚马逊,加载网页要花费3美分,那就没人会加载网页了。”

Reward tokens are designed to flow around the system as a digital representation of karma, incentivizing good behavior and punishing bad behavior.

奖励代币被设计成在系统中流动,作为业力(karma)的数字表征,激励良好的行为,惩罚不良行为。

You could literally build the ultimate universal system with just these four coins. Every other coin could simply act as a subcomponent of those coins with different metadata.

你确实可以只用这四种货币就能建造出最终的通用系统。其它的每种货币都可以作为这些货币具有不同元数据的子成分而存在。

9) We’ll Learn We Didn’t Know Crap About Economics 我们将了解到我们对经济学一无所知

Are you a Keynesian planner or an Austrian free market adherent?

你是凯恩斯主义者,还是奥地利的自由市场理念的拥护者?

The answer is who cares?
答案是谁会在乎呢?

All of our economic theories are based on studies conducting with limited data in the analog age of ink and wood pulp. All current economic theory will prove about as advanced as cave paintings as we experiment with new economic systems over the coming years.

我们所有的经济理论都是基于在纸笔上的模拟时代通过有限的数据所作出的研究。在未来数年内,随着我们对新经济系统的实验,当今的所有理论都会被证明跟远古时代的岩画一样先进。

That’s what these new coins are: Micro-economic systems at war.

这就是这些新的数字货币的作用: 战争中的微观经济系统。

It’s Darwinian economics.
这是达尔文主义经济学。

A few basic laws of economics will hold true but many of them will simply fall by the wayside. That’s because with blockchain dominate systems we’ll have real time economic data on a global scale not just a bunch of guesses done with pencil and paper a hundred years ago.

一些基本的经济学定律将会继续成立,但许多定律会被搁置一旁。这是因为,在区块链主导的系统中,我们将在全球范围内拥有实时的经济数据,而不仅仅是一百年前用铅笔和纸做的猜测。

As artificial intelligence tracks statistics in real time around the globe we’ll be able to see the real effects of a steel tariff enacted in one country as prices shoot up for building in another country dependent on that steel. We’ll track global production and manufacturing with unbelievable precision and what we learn will very much surprise us in so many wonderful ways.

随着人工智能在全球范围内对统计数据的实时追踪,我们将能够看到一个国家的钢铁关税的实际影响,因为在另一个国家依赖于钢铁的房屋价格会飙升。我们将以令人难以置信的精确度追踪全球的生产业和制造业,我们所学到的东西,会以相当多的奇妙方式让我们感到非常惊讶。

10) A DAO Will Grow to Fortune 500 Status 会有一个DAO(去中心化组织)进入财富500强

The most likely DAO to reach this milestone will be a DAO that mirrors an open version of Visa, in that it will likely take cuts from the transactions and miners on the most dominate network and it will help fund the future development and governance of that network.

最有可能达到这一里程碑的 DAO 将是一个映射开放版本的 Visa 的DAO,它可能会从交易和矿工的最主导的网络中获取收益,它将为该网络的未来开发和治理提供资金。

It will not hoard all the money but act as a nexus that flows the money down to other businesses and DAOs via smart contract as well as to state and local governments and other non-governmental entities that benefit the network.

To do that though the DAO has to evolve.
Right now we think of DAO’s as a smart contract. Not even close.

它不会囤积所有的钱,而是作为一种关系网,通过智能合约将资金流向其它企业和DAOs,以及国家和地方政府以及其他有利于网络的非政府实体。

要做到这一点,DAO 仍然需要进化。
现在我们认为 DAO 是一种智能合约。差的还远。

“How beauteous mankind is! O brave new world, / That has such people in ‘t!”

“多么美丽的人类! 啊,勇敢的新世界,/那里有这样的人!

A DAO will require AI to help manage and mitigate its rulesets and it will need to be able to auto-generate templated governance models. Governance is everything in DAOs and there are no good scalable models yet to manage a company the size of a major corporation today as an open source meritocratic workplace. Early DAOs failed because they have what I call the Brave New World problem.

Everyone imagines they’re the chief and nobody wants to take out the trash.
It’s hard to order paperclips when everyone is a king in a DAO.

DAO 将需要人工智能来帮助管理和精简它的规则集,并且它需要能够自动生成模板的治理模型。在 DAO 中,治理就是一切,当前还没有合适的可扩展的模型来管理一家大企业规模的、作为开源的精英工作场所的公司。早期的 DAO 失败了,因为他们都存在我所说的勇敢新世界的问题。

每个人都幻想自己是头领,没有人想去倒垃圾。当每个人都是国王时,连订购回形针都很难。

To function effectively a team needs role players and stars. People also have to understand their role and accept it, even if it will change later as they build merit and experience in the system.

要有效地发挥作用,团队需要球员角色和明星。人们也必须了解他们的角色并接受,他们在系统中创造了价值,积累了经验之后,他们的角色也会改变。

Management is hard enough as it is in corporate environments. How do you fire someone for non-performance in a DAO? How do you ensure that the guy in charge of ICO security is actually qualified and not just elected because everyone likes him? You can’t risk someone running off with $45 million in Bitcoin because Bob got elected for his great stories about Burning Man and his painting skills.

The automated corporate and non-profit architectures of tomorrow will have to evolve incredible tools for ongoing management and decision making as well as operating agreements that function like code to become a reality.

(DAO的)管理跟在企业环境中一样,也是非常困难的。如何在一个 DAO 中解雇一个不执行的人? 你如何确保负责 ICO 安全的人实际上是合格的,而不是因为每个人都喜欢他而当选的? 你不能因为 Bob 能够讲述关于燃烧人的高超故事和他优秀的绘画技巧而选他,却而冒着丢失价值4500万美元的比特币的风险。

未来的自动化企业和非营利性架构将会进化出不可思议的工具用于持续的管理和决策制定,并且将类似于代码一样运作的运行协议变成现实。

11) The Gig Economy Will Grow Big Time 零工经济(Gig Economy)将会发展得很好

People from the World War II generation had one or two jobs their whole life.
Today we have five or six.
Tomorrow’s people will have five or six at the same time.

二战一代的人一生中有一到两份工作。
今天,我们一生中会有五六份工作。
明天的人将同时有五六份工作。

Half of those income streams will be automated and passive, likely some kind of crypto UBI. We will also see the rise of AI job matching services. The machines will know your capabilities and skill sets and match short term gigs to you so you don’t even have to look for a job.

其中一半的收入流将是自动和被动的,比如某种加密货币的UBI。我们还将看到人工智能匹配服务的兴起。机器将会了解你的能力和技能,并与你匹配短期的零工,所以你甚至都不用去寻找工作。

Imagine a software project that requires an insane amount of code, something like ten trillion lines. Software projects are only getting more complicated and will continue to grow. AI’s will write and test half of it but people will write the other half. The project would get fed into a distributed, decentralized system that chunks up and parses out the work, acts like a project manager and delivers the work to coders all across the worldwide network based on the reputation and skillset fingerprint.

假设一个软件项目需要相当大量的代码,大约10万亿行。软件项目只会变得越来越复杂,而且还会继续增长。人工智能将编写和测试其中的一半,人们会写另一半。这个项目将会被分配到一个分布式、去中心化的系统中,就像项目经理一样将工作分成多个部分分发出去,并根据声誉和技能的指纹(fingerprint),将工作分发给全世界网络上的程序员。

Think of it like an AI Github married to UpWork and the Mechanical Turk system.
It could work for manufacturing and all kinds of blue collar work as well, which can make a big dent in the haves and have-nots divide we see today.

The Hong Kong subway AI is perhaps the first prototype of this kind of network, even if it’s not a perfect analogy. It predicts what will fail on the subway and sends engineers to get ahead of the failures. That makes the uptime of the world’s busiest subway 99%.
Much of this will be governed by Externalized Reputation Banks powered by blockchains that will be the social credit of tomorrow.
This will be both good and very, very evil.

把它想象成一个结合了 UpWork 和 Mechanical Turk 系统的AI Github。
它可以用于制造业和各种蓝领工作,这可以大大削弱我们今天看到的贫富差距。
香港地铁AI可能是这类网络的第一个原型,即使这个类比并不完美。该系统预测地铁会发生什么,并派工程师在出错前赶赴现场。这使得这条世界上最繁忙的地铁的正常运行时间达到了99%。

这其中的大部分将由外部的声誉银行治理,这些银行由区块链驱动,它将是未来的社会信用。
这既有好的一面,也有非常,非常邪恶的一面。

Black Mirror’s Social Credit.

On the evil side of the house we have the Chinese Social Credit system that is about as Black Mirror as it gets today. It will get infinitely worse as nation-states use Reputation Banks to cram ideology down people’s throats.

But open, publicly managed Rep Banks will help us find relationships and work and figure out who to trust in business and in life.
It will be a double edged sword.
The main challenge is that very few people can agree on what is good or bad in a system and ideology tends to warp those concepts into unrecognizable messes. It will be incredibly easy to create a ruleset that enslaves us all if we’re not careful.

The Controversy Kings

I just cranked through some of the easier predictions to make. Now let’s toss out a few that just might spark fierce debates and controversy in the community.

黑镜的社会信用。

在邪恶的一面,我们有中国的社会信用体系,就像今天的黑镜一样。当民族国家利用声誉银行把意识形态灌进人们的喉咙时,情况将变得更加糟糕。

但开放的、公开管理的声誉银行将帮助我们找到关系和工作,并发现在商业和生活中谁值得信任。

这将是一把双刃剑。

主要挑战在于,很少有人能在一个系统中达成共识,而意识形态往往会将这些概念扭曲成无法辨认的混乱。如果我们不小心,创建一个奴役我们所有人的规则集将非常容易。

争议的国王

我只做了一些比较简单的预测。现在让我们来讨论一些可能会在社区引发激烈争辩和争议的事情。

12) The Blockchain Will Enable All Kinds of Evil 区块链会带来各种各样的邪恶

Crypto enthusiasts will have to come to terms with the fact that the blockchain can and will enable as much evil as it does good.

加密技术的狂热追随者们将不得不接受事实,区块链会带来很多益处,但是也可以并且将会带来很多邪恶。

Nothing is all good or evil. Everything exists on a continuum. You can kill someone with a gun but you can also feed your family by hunting. Water sustains life but it can also drown you or even poison you.

没有什么全是好的,或者全部是坏的。一切都存在于一个连续体中。你可以用枪杀人,但你也可以通过狩猎来养活你的家人。水能维持生命,但它也会淹没你,甚至毒害你。

If you’re out there designing a system right now with the “move fast and break things” DevOps approach, just know that it’s most likely a disaster for systems that can algorithmically govern many aspects of our lives.

Instead, you should adopt a go slow, think about it and don’t break things approach.

You should start thinking about all the ways to destroy your system or you won’t be able to defend it. If you aren’t imagining all the ways a hostile group will use the power of blockchain, one that doesn’t share your views on openness and freedom and collaboration, then you’re just naive.

如果你现在正在以“快速行动,推陈出新”的DevOps方法来设计一个系统,要知道对于一个可以通过算法来管理我们生活许多方面的系统而言,这很可能会是一个灾难。

相反,你应该采用另外一种方式:放慢速度,仔细思考,不要破坏事物。

你应该从一开始就考虑到所有会摧毁你的系统的方法,否则你将无法保护它。如果你没有想到一个敌对的群体,一个不同意你对开放、自由和合作的观点的群体所使用区块链力量的种种方式,那么你就太天真了。

I’m half way through an article called “What If Hitler Had the Blockchain?” Frankly, I don’t want to publish it because I don’t want to give the bad guys any fresh ideas but rest assured it probably doesn’t matter. Their dark minds are already hard at work imagining how to use blockchain as a system of repression and control.

我有一篇文章写了一半: “如果希特勒有区块链呢?” 坦白说,我不想公开它,因为我不想给坏人提供任何新想法,但请放心,这可能并不重要。他们的黑暗思想已经投入了大量的工作,设想如何将区块链作为一个压制和控制的系统来使用。

I will be somewhat intentionally vague here, so as not to put all of these ideas out into the collective unconscious but think digital tracking of all aspects of your life from where you go and what do, to statistical predictions about your behavior, as well as behavioral algorithms designed to incentivize you to conform to an ideology, and lastly think unbreakable digital rights management and outright genocide.

我故意有所模糊, 这样就不会把所有的这些想法的集体无意识,但想一下,对你生活的所有方面进行数据跟踪,从你去哪里、做什么,到对你的行为统计预测,以及行为算法旨在激励你符合意识形态,最后认为牢不可破的数字版权管理和彻底的种族灭绝。

Genocide? 种族灭绝? 是的。
Yeah.

Don’t forget that IBM helped the Nazis manage the holocaust with punch cards for tracking victims.

不要忘记, IBM曾经帮助纳粹用打孔卡记录受害者,来管理屠杀。

What could they have done with blockchain? Answer: Many more horrible atrocities that we can only begin to imagine now.

他们能用区块链做什么? 答案:更多可怕的暴行,我们现在只能够想象。

Maybe you think that an open system will always prevent abuses?

Wrong.

If the Internet has taught us anything it’s that open systems tend towards centralization and given enough time central powers can and will subvert and corrupt any system to their own ends.

If you’re working in crypto and you’re not thinking about all the ways to misuse crypto then it’s very likely that instead of designing a system to save the world you just created a prison for it.

也许你认为开放系统总能防止滥用?

错了。

如果说互联网教会了我们什么,那就是开放式系统倾向于集中化,经过足够的时间后,集权会颠覆和破坏任何系统,以达到他们自己的目的。

如果你在开发使用加密货币,却没有考虑到滥用加密货币的所有可能性,那么很可能,你并没有创造一个系统来拯救世界,相反,你为它建造了一座监狱。

13) Bitcoin Has a 50/50 Shot At Surviving

比特币的存活几率为50 /50

Most true believers will not like this one but honestly, 50/50 might be really, really high here.

大部分比特币的信仰者不会喜欢这一条,但是说实话,对半开已经是非常高估了。

I know, I know. You’ve heard it all before! The Money Badger can’t be stopped! New ATH!!!! Buy and HODLz forever!

我知道,我知道。你肯定早就听说过了! 货币之王不会停止! 新的ATH!购买,然后永远持有!

Look you stuck with me this long so stick with me a little longer so I can explain.
First off, I’m rooting for Bitcoin to live until my dying days but let’s look at this objectively for a few minutes to see why it might go down hard. It’s probably not what you think.
Bitcoin has first mover advantage. It’s the absolute first of its kind and still dominates the global market share but it also suffers from a number of major flaws that could kill it.

看在你已经伴随我阅读了这么长时间的份上,请你多留一点时间给我,我会对此做些解释。首先,我坚信比特币会活到我去世之后,但是让我们花一点时间客观的看下,为什么它可能走向衰落。也许不是你想的样子。比特币有先发优势,它是当之无愧的第一,仍然主宰着了全球的市场份额,但是,仍然有一些主要的缺陷可能会将它杀死。

Basically, it’s the Model T of the blockchain revolution.

How many Model T’s do you see on the street today?

Can you retrofit a Model T to make it burn rubber like a Lamborghini? Can you add sophisticated electronics to make it a self-driving Tesla? Nope.

To start with, Bitcoin has no built-in governance. This is a crucial flaw. Only a few ways to change it exist. The first is to submit a proposal where almost everyone agrees and as we have seen with SegWit, that’s incredibly hard. It took four years for the change to get adopted.

基本上,它是区块链革命中的的Model T(历史上的一款福特车型)。

你今天在街上看到多少Model T?

你能改造一台 Model T 让它像兰博基尼那样飙车燃烧橡胶吗? 你能添加复杂的电子元件让它成为自动驾驶特斯拉吗? 不。
首先,比特币没有内在治理,这是一个关键的缺陷。只有几种方法可以改变它的存在。第一是提交一个几乎所有人都同意的提案,这很难做到,正如我们在 SegWit所看到的那样。这一变更花了四年时间才获得通过。

The second is to start a new project and hard fork it. This might be the only way this actually works in the end. A team might fork it and build in governance, but it’s a long shot.

A coin with well designed, widespread, build-in governance will have a massive advantage over Bitcoin and could easily replace it, as it makes upgrades seamless and smooth.

Upgrades and responses to attacks by well funded hostile forces will need to move fast and percolate throughout the network in hours or days, not years.

What about scaling? We already talked about that problem. Changing the blocksize won’t cut it. It will require something more radical.

第二种方式是,开创一个新项目,然后硬分叉。到最后,这也许是唯一能行的方式了。可能会有某个团队进行分叉然后创建内在治理,但这个过程很漫长。

具有良好设计,广泛传播,并且有内在治理的货币,相比比特币会有巨大的优势,能够轻而易举就取而代之,因为它可以无缝平滑升级。
有雄厚资金支持的敌对力量发起攻击后,全网络需要能够迅速行动,应对攻击,升级系统,这需要在数小时或几天内完成,而不是数年。

扩容呢? 我们已经讨论过这个问题了。改变区块的规模是不能解决问题的。它需要一些更激进的改变。

What if China turns the Great Firewall on it? Would it even be possible to retrofit private relays and other anti-interference code into the system at this late stage?

What if governments simply decide that they will spend a billion dollars on a datacenter and secretly designed ASICs to run the system? Could any miners compete?

What if hostiles just decided to round up all the core developers? How easy would it be to replace them considering the tremendous shortage of talent in the crypto world now?

These are only some of the nearly insurmountable problems of my favorite crypto. I point them out not to kill it but to make people think. If you can really see a problem you can find a way to fix it. But if we’re only going to deal with fake problems like the blocksize limit we will get nowhere.

如果中国使用GFW屏蔽比特币呢? 在这一阶段,是否有可能将私有中继器和其他抗干扰代码转换到系统中?

如果政府仅仅决定在数据中心花费10亿美元,并秘密设计ASICs来运行系统呢? 有任何矿工能够与之竞争吗?

如果“敌方”决定把所有核心开发者都召集起来怎么办? 考虑到现在世界上存在着巨大的人才短缺问题,要取代他们会很容易么?
这些只是我所喜爱的加密货币领域中几乎无法克服的问题中的一部分。我指出来,不是为了杀死比特币,而是为了让人们思考。如果你真的能看到问题,你就能找到解决问题的方法。但如果我们只是处理像区块大小限制这样的假问题,我们将一事无成。

Bitcoin is a beautiful, brilliant idea and it’s already changed the world. It won’t fail because it’s a fraud or a scam, but because of its own hard coded rules, in-fighting and lack of governance.

Of course, it doesn’t have to fail. We can start thinking about how to save it right here, right now.

As I noted earlier, some kind of virtualization or containerization that allows Bitcoin to adapt and evolve by migrating to an abstracted set of protocols and defenses would help ensure that it not only survives but thrives.

I’m rooting for it. I’m betting if you’re reading this, you are too.

The best way to make sure it survives is to understand all the real reasons it could fail and start designing real solutions to those problems today, so that when they do arrive, we’re ready.

比特币是一个漂亮、聪明的主意,它已经改变了世界。不会因为它是欺诈或骗局而失败,但是,它可能因为自己的硬编码规则、内讧和缺乏治理而失败。

当然,它不一定会失败。我们现在就可以开始思考如何让它存活下来。

正如我前面提到的,使用某种虚拟化或容器化的技术,通过迁移到抽象的协议和防御系统让比特币适应和发展,不仅有助于确保它的生存,而且还能蓬勃发展。

我支持它。我打赌,如果你在看这个,你也是。

确保它能存活下来的最好方法是了解可能失败的所有真正原因,并开始为这些问题设计真正的解决方案,这样当“敌人”到达时,我们就准备好了。

The Final Frontier

I have a lot more predictions but I’ll save them for my fiction. Maybe I’ll do a followup if this article goes viral.

I also left a few evil ideas off the table because I don’t want to see them come to pass. If someone else comes up with them, there’s nothing I can do about it but the worst scenarios in the Monte Carlo pathways of tomorrow will not come from my keyboard.

Cryptocurrencies represent a fundamental upgrade to the economic systems of the world. Once they’re fully booted up and integrated into the global and interplanetary networks of the future, the world will look very, very different in ways we can only begin to understand.

Hundreds of years from now, today’s economies will look like the feudal economies of the past.

我有更多的预测,但我会把它们保存在我的小说里。如果这篇文章像病毒一样传播的话,也许我会做后续研究。

我也留下了一些邪恶的想法,因为我不想看到它们发生。如果有其他人来找他们,我也无能为力,但明天蒙特卡罗路径上最糟糕的情况不会从我的键盘发出。

加密货币是世界经济体系的根本升级。一旦他们完全被引导并融入到未来的全球和星际网络中,世界将会变得非常非常不同,我们才刚刚开始理解。

几百年以后,今天的经济看起来就像过去的封建经济一样落后。

Cyrptocurrencies, decentralized apps and DAOs even hold the possibility of bootstrapping us into Star Trek like post-scarcity economies but it will take time.

加密货币,去中心化应用程序和 DAOs 甚至有可能引导我们进入“星际迷航”(Star Trek),就像后短缺经济体一样,但这需要时间。

I’m not betting on Singularity level acceleration taking us there tomorrow, even if I sprinkle the Singularity into all my sci-fi work because it’s the stuff of great fiction. But it’s probably not reality.

我不相信奇点级别的加速会让我们明天就到达,即使我把奇点加到了我所有的科幻作品里,因为它好小说的素材。但这可能并非现实。

If I’m wrong, then my uploaded and snapshotted virtual mind, running on a global fog of computronium in a Matroishka brain will just have to deal with it.
But I doubt it.

如果我错了,那么我做了快照并上传的虚拟思想将会去处理,它运行在一个Matroishka大脑的全球性计算 fog 云中。

但我对此表示怀疑。

So where does that leave us?

Crypto will be both good and evil like everything in life.

If you’re working on crypto then you’re building the world of tomorrow but don’t expect it to arrive next week.

Inertia has a way of slowing down even the fastest rockets.

Just enjoy the ride while we boldly go where no one has gone before.

那么,我们该怎么办呢?

加密技术将是善与恶并存的,就像生活中的一切事物一样。

如果你正在做这行业,那么你正在构建明天的世界,但别指望它会在下周到来。

即使是最快的火箭,也可能会被惯性拖到减速。

我们会勇敢地去往无人去过的地方,享受这段旅程吧。

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