在这里分享一篇比较新的文章，这篇文章于 2019 Oct 5发表在EBioMedicine上，目前EBioMedicine的最新IF为6.68，文章内容也不多，也就是我们经常提到的分析，Cox回归，绘制列线图，模型验证，生存分析等内容。
文章题目：Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for HIV/AIDS patients who underwent antiretroviral therapy: Data from a China population-based cohort
Accurate forecast of the death risk is crucial to the administration of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV). We aimed to establish and validate an effective prognosis nomogram in PLHIV receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART).
All the data were obtained from 2006 to 2018 in the Wenzhou area from China AIDS prevention and control information system. Factors included in the nomogram were determined by univariate and multiple Cox proportional hazard analysis based on the training set. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration curves were used to assess its predictive accuracy and discriminative ability. Its clinical utility was also evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA), X-tile analysis and Kaplan-Meier curve, respectively in an independent validation set.
Independent prognostic factors including haemoglobin, viral load and CD4+ T-cell count were determined and contained in the nomogram. Good agreement between the prediction by nomogram and actual observation could be detected in the calibration curve for mortality, especially in the first year. In the training cohort, AUC (95% CI) and C-index (95% CI) were 0.93 (0.90, 0.96) and 0.90 (0.85, 0.96), respectively. In the validation set, the nomogram still revealed excellent discriminations [AUC (95% CI): 0.95 (0.91, 1.00)] and good calibration [C-index (95% CI): 0.92 (0.82-1.00)]. Moreover, DCA also demonstrated that the nomogram was clinical beneficial. Additionally, participants could be classified into three distinct (low, middle and high) risk groups by the nomogram.
The nomogram presents accurate and favourable prognostic prediction for PLHIV who underwent ART.