The tendency and coping strategies of the major global stock indexes from the technical point of view

PART I  The judgment of the top structures of global stock indexes           

(1) American stock           

1. Dow Jones: at 4:30 on January 30th (Beijing time), it formed a 120 minutes top structure, then fell 8.87%, and formed two bottom structures :one lasted 30 minutes and the other lasted 60 minutes on February 10th. The long-term trend is supported by stepping back, the mid-term trend falls at the beginning, and the short-term trend falls at its peak.         

2.NASDAQ: at 00:30 on January 30th(Beijing time) ,it formed a 120 minutes top structure, and formed a 30 minutes bottom structure on February 10th without a 60 minutes bottom structure. The long-term trend is supported by stepping back, the mid-term trend falls at the beginning, and the short-term trend falls at its peak.

3.S & P 500: at 3:30 on January 30th (Beijing time),it formed a 60 minutes top structure , at 4:30 (Beijing time) formed 120 minutes top structure, and formed two bottom structures :one lasted 30 minutes and the other lasted 60 minutes on February 10th. The long-term trend is supported by stepping back, the mid-term trend falls at the beginning, and the short-term trend falls at its peak.

In general, the phase of the US stock market is turing wave A to wave B, and the corretive time is expected only in 1 week.The range of the rebound is expected between MA5 (weak rebound) and MA10 (strong rebound).After that it will comes to the phase of wave C which clearly would cause a fall again.   

(2) Nikkei 225           

At 13:00 on January 24th, it formed a 120 minutes top structure,followed by the top structure of the MA on January 25th,, and then a 11.36% fall during the next 13 trading days.

The medium-term trend is going down. There is a certain extent of support for long-term trend . Now there are two bottom structures :one lasted 30 minutes and the other lasted 60 minutes . If on the next Monday a short-term rebounded, the two structures would be formed which means the end of the first falling wave A phase. But according to the falling speed of the medium-term trend and top structure of the early MA , the rebound can be defined as a wave B phase.

(3) FTSE 100 in Britain           

Since the fall on January 15th did not exceed 30 minutes above the top structure. We need to find other UK stock indexes as the additional evidence. On February 9th, there was a top structure in the middle term trend .Thus there is a concern about a top structure passivation in the long-term trend . This means that the medium - and long - term trend has gone down completely and it will continue months. Last Friday, there was no bottom structure of the time-line.While the the 30 minutes bottom structure of the MA was passivated indeed.However whether the long-term trend top structure passivation is formed or not can’t be told until the next Monday. That means there is no sign of a short-term rebound. In that case if there was a bottom structure of a time-line you should size the opportunity to empty out or reversing and going short positions . 

(4) DAX30, Germany           

At 00:00 on January 25th, it formed a 120 minutes top structure. The top structure of the MA was formed on the 29 day. On February 2nd, the top structure of the mid-term trend was formed, and the long-term trend top structure formed passivation. This means that the medium - and long - term trend has gone down completely and it will continue months. Last Friday, there was a 30 minutes bottom structure, but it was hard to rebound before the 60 - minutes bottom structure formed. In that case if there was a 60 minutes bottom structure of a time-line you should size the opportunity to empty out or  reversing and going short positions . 

(5) CAC40, France           

There was a 60 minutes top structure at 23:00 on January 23rd and a 120 minutes top structure at 18:00 on January 24th.The mid term trend formed on February 2nd and the long-term trend top structure was passivated. This indicates that the medium - and long - term trend has gone down completely and it will continue months.Last Friday showed a 30 minutes bottom structure and soon disappeared. As it mentioned above it was hard to rebound before the 60 - minutes bottom structure formed. In that case if there was a 60 minutes bottom structure of a time-line you should size the opportunity to empty out or reversing and going short positions . 

(6) Australia s S & P 200          

There was a 60 minutes top structure at 13:00 on January 9th and a top structure of the MA on January 11th.The mid term trend formed on February 9th and the long-term trend top structure was passivated. On Friday, it formed two bottom structures one is 60 minutes the other is 30 minutes. There are short-term rebound signs .The rebound would have a pressure around the MA10, empty out or  reversing and going short positions is strongly recommended.

(7) the Hang Seng Index           

There was a 30 minutes top structure at 12:00 on January 29th and a 30 minutes top structure on the same day. There are no top structures in both middle and long term trends.Last Friday there was a 30 minutes bottom structure. There are short-term rebound signs .The rebound would have a pressure around the MA5.empty out or reversing and going short positions in a short-term is recommended. but it is not suitable to make a large equity position.       

PART II Coping Strategies           

1.The size of top structures: Hang Seng index < US stocks<Europe, Japan and Australia .

2.the current decline is not over yet.

3.The hang seng index is most likely to stop the fall and rebound firstly.It is meaningless to going short .

4.When it comes to the other stock indexes they might have a big gains by taking advantage of short - term rebound to reverse and go short positions largely. 

     

Author: senlintuAAA         

Translation: Jessie Lau         

Sunday, February 11, 2018

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