Arguement 1

 Woven baskets characterized by a particular distinctive pattern have previously been found only in the immediate vicinity of the prehistoric village of Palea and therefore were believed to have been made only by the Palean people. Recently, however, archaeologists discovered such a "Palean" basket in Lithos, an ancient village across the Brim River from Palea. The Brim River is very deep and broad, and so the ancient Paleans could have crossed it only by boat, and no Palean boats have been found. Thus it follows that the so-called Palean baskets were not uniquely Palean. Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument

思路

There may be no river at all in the ancinet past, or the river may have simply been a very shallow and narrow one. 

Granted that the river was deep and broad to begin with, there are other wats that the basket may have gotten from Palea to Lithos:

   -- Put the basket in the river and float to the other side.

   -- A good swimmer can get to the other side when the water was calm, 

   -- Get to Lithos through another route that may or may not be far. 

   -- Wait for the river to freeze during winter and walk across to the other side. 

No boats have been found = no boat existed. Maybe the boats were simply hidden somewhere else that are waiting to be found. Or it is highly possible that the ancients boats were made of wood, and the wooden boats have already decomposed over these years. Granted that there was no boats in Palea, it was possible that Lithos had boats and they used their boats to come to Palea for those baskets. 

Argue 48.

Clearview should be a top choice for anyone seeking a place to retire, because it has spectacular natural beauty and a consistent climate. Another advantage is that housing costs in Clearview have fallen significantly during the past year, and taxes remain lower than those in neighboring towns. Moreover, Clearview's mayor promises many new programs to improve schools, streets, and public services. And best of all, retirees in Clearview can also expect excellent health care as they grow older, since the number of physicians in the area is far greater than the national average."Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

思路：

1.preference/ consideration for retirement destinat*ion : mai

nly environmental & economical factors? infrastructure + public service ( transportation + communication + medical services)

2. 房价降了还是很高，税收是按照物价收的

3. promises to improve: 

     ---the attractiveness of any improvement is based on the deficiecy of the system, and thus the mayor would raise promises to gain public attention and supporting = 很有理由，相信这边的public service not satisfying

     ---politician promise = real action : gap between intention and action = in the future = not assured

4. medical services: quality of medical services only determined by the number of physicians what about their skills? what about devices. 

Argue 60.

Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil." Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

思路：

P1: cold weather prediction based on observation and calculation = not accurate

P2: people may not live in those new houses. other approaches for heatin such as gas, air conditioner.

P3: 这个行业好，不代表这个公司好。 就算这个贵公司好，不代表以后也会好。retail vs wholesale

Argue2.

The following appeared as part of a letter to the editor of a scientific journal. "A recent study of eighteen rhesus monkeys provides clues as to the effects of birth order on an individual's levels of stimulation. The study showed that in stimulating situations (such as an encounter with an unfamiliar monkey), firstborn infant monkeys produce up to twice as much of the hormone cortisol, which primes the body for increased activity levels, as do their younger siblings. Firstborn humans also produce relatively high levels of cortisol in stimulating situations (such as the return of a parent after an absence). The study also found that during pregnancy, first-time mother monkeys had higher levels of cortisol than did those who had had several offspring." Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.

思路：

1.surbey of 18 monkeys: sample size too small to generalize the traits of the individuals / an individual; not so certain as to how the survey had been conducted and how the moneys were selected? Wild vs lab-raised. 

2. analogy from human beings to monkeys, and then extended to cover all individuals = not representative: species individuality determines. 

      ---biological structures, brain capacity, genes

3. birth order = different levels? coincidece? Biological? for baby monkeys & pregnant monkeys, they might display a different behavior pattern at the same time = behaviours cause different levels. not necessarily from the birth order. Social responsibility & experience. 

Argue 10 

Twenty years ago, Dr. Field, a noted anthropologist, visited the island of Tertia. Using an observation-centered approach to studying Tertian culture, he concluded from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their own biological parents. Recently another anthropologist, Dr. Karp, visited the group of islands that includes Tertia and used the interview-centered method to study child-rearing practices. In the interviews that Dr. Karp conducted with children living in this group of islands, the children spent much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village. Dr. Karp decided that Dr. Field's conclusion about Tertian village culture must be invalid. Some anthropologists recommend that to obtain accurate information on Tertian child-rearing practices, future research on the subject should be conducted via the interview-centered method. 

思路：

1.Observation : no interruption, reflecting the real life. Interview: designing process, how the questions are raised? or the children are reminded of their parents and activated to talk about the parents. 

2. 20 years' gap = both of the experiments are reflecting the reality, not necessary to tell which is better. 

3. 全村抚养和说自己父母比较多不冲突

4. TERTIA VS Other islands

Argue 100：

The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe. "Jazz music is extremely popular in the city of Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Also, a number of well-known jazz musicians own homes in Monroe. Nevertheless, the nearest jazz club is over an hour away. Given the popularity of jazz in Monroe and a recent nationwide study indicating that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment, a jazz music club in Monroe would be tremendously profitable." Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

思路：

1. author assumes increasingly numbers of people would attend the music festival over years: one hand: local people ; on the other hand, the trend would continue = last year = now = future? 

2. national survey = average consumption habit = everyone would pay as much as indicated in the survey?

OR in Monroe the area, not guaranteed cunsumers would follow the same habit. 

3. Highest rated = many listeners? Radio is free, but clubs are not. 

4. Famous musicians may not perform or even live there?

5. There may be no avaliable location near city / town center for the new club, or maybe the city center is not convenient for parking, so people would still  want to fo to the other one that is one hour away. 

6. Profitable: On the one hand, the trend might not continue = future not many people would come; ont everyone from local + music festival not everyday = insufficient revenues for daily operation; Furthermore, initial investment in establishing the Jazz Club = much money = higher cost. Thus, revenues not assured + high cost = not for sure profit ablility. 

Argue 55：

The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine. "Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people ten to twenty-five years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

思路：

1. the people in the survey might not stand for all the players in the market = lifelike graphics not desired for all the players *定性分析参与采访的人不能代表所有人的态度“. Real life graphics is only part of what players care. 

2. 即使players 能够代表大众观点，但是intention 和 action  是不是有一定的gap？

   ----people expressed high level of interests in the games in the survey, but they might not be equally moticated to purchase the real games when the games are finally launched into the market. = sales up? ** computer requirement might be so high that not everyone could make the effort to update the computers just for playing some games, especially those youhng adults who do not have much avaliable money. 

3. consumers vs customers: 

childeren or teenagers should be interested in the games, but they might not be financially capable of purchasing the games... those adults who pay for the bill should be directily communicated in their languages. 

Argue 15 :

The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants. "Recently, butter has been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. This change, however, has had little impact on our customers. In fact, only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers do not distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine."

思路：

1. 不抱怨不代表对服务的认可

2. 服务员的话不可信

3. 可能是客户不在乎

Argue 29：

The following appeared in an editorial in a local newspaper. "Commuters complain that increased rush-hour traffic on Blue Highway between the suburbs and the city center has doubled their commuting time. The favored proposal of the motorists' lobby is to widen the highway, adding an additional lane of traffic. Opponents note that last year's addition of a lane to the nearby Green Highway was followed by a worsening of traffic jams on it. Their suggested alternative proposal is adding a bicycle lane to Blue Highway. Many area residents are keen bicyclists. A bicycle lane would encourage them to use bicycles to commute, it is argued, thereby reducing rush-hour traffic." Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

思路：

1. GH + addition  lane = worse? lane not be the reason, the drivers be the reason. 

2. GH = BH? two different wats serving different commuters * locations * traffic situation

3. many residents = bicyclists = bicycle to work ??? No, first & effort on the way; burden for the working readiness

Argue 40：

Milk and dairy products are rich in vitamin D and calcium—substances essential for building and maintaining bones. Many people therefore say that a diet rich in dairy products can help prevent osteoporosis, a disease that is linked to both environmental and genetic factors and that causes the bones to weaken significantly with age. But a long-term study of a large number of people found that those who consistently consumed dairy products throughout the years of the study have a higher rate of bone fractures than any other participants in the study. Since bone fractures are symptomatic of osteoporosis, this study result shows that a diet rich in dairy products may actually increase, rather than decrease, the risk of osteoporosis.

思路：

C: M +D = more O

P1 : study

P2:  bone fracture = O

1. other reaosns leading to bone fractures in the surveyed participants: feeling protected, those people would conduct more intensive exercises, which might result in more frequent injuries. 

2. survey: qualitative argue：who are those people having more bone fractures? being seniors or teenagers 

3. bone fractures not surely lead to O

Argue 83：

The following is a letter to the editor of an environmental magazine. "In 1975 a wildlife census found that there were seven species of amphibians in Xanadu National Park, with abundant numbers of each species. However, in 2002 only four species of amphibians were observed in the park, and the numbers of each species were drastically reduced. There has been a substantial decline in the numbers of amphibians worldwide, and global pollution of water and air is clearly implicated. The decline of amphibians in Xanadu National Park, however, almost certainly has a different cause: in 1975, trout—which are known to eat amphibian eggs—were introduced into the park."

思路：

1.observation vs census: noy for sure accurate from observation

2.the trout eat the eggs in natural environment: but in the park, when people are aware of such prey and predator relations, they might take some measures to ensure that the trout might not do great harm to the survival of the amphilibians. either controlling the trouts by feeding them with better alternatives or preserving those eggs in places to which the trout hardly have access. Trout only eats amphibian eggs?

3. amphibians live both in waters and on lands: water  and air pollution = more serious harm = impact on the survival and reproduction = numbers might decrease. 

Argue 104：

    During the past year, workers at our newly opened factory reported 30 percent more on-the-job accidents than workers at nearby Panoply Industries. Panoply produces products very similar to those produced at our factory, but its work shifts are one hour shorter than ours. Experts say that fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers are significant contributing factors in many on-the-job accidents. Panoply's superior safety record can therefore be attributed to its shorter work shifts, which allow its employees to get adequate amounts of rest.

思路：

1. P的accidents少有可能因为工商设定的标准不一样

2. 也可能是P管理的好或者机械比较先进

3. Export说的不一定对，因为受伤也有可能对工作流程不熟悉

4. 短了一个小时workers不一定去休息了

Argue 36：

The following report appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council."An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds represent the most frequently given reason for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid—a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil—as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."

思路：

1. 鱼的消费可能不代表吃鱼，包括买鱼养着

2. 可能因为小的感冒就不去看，当地居民比较注意健康所以看得少

3. 通过减少感冒并不能减少缺勤率

4. 吃的Ichthaid可能不含有能抗感冒的有效物质

5. EM发生的情况 不能类比到其他城市来解决类似问题

1. 因果论：作者认为人们看医生比较少的原因是因为吃鱼。（也可能是因为当地气候好，或者注意锻炼）

2. 与偶可能感冒了，也没去看医生

3. 类比： East 和West 不一样，两个城市的人做的方法可能不同，吃的鱼种类可能不同

4. Study可能之前调查了比较健康的人

5. 吃鱼又用不一定代表吃鱼油的提炼物就有用

6. 就算都有用，可能大家只是装病

Argue 3：

The following appeared as a letter to the editor from a Central Plaza store owner. "Over the past two years, the number of shoppers in Central Plaza has been steadily decreasing while the popularity of skateboarding has increased dramatically. Many Central Plaza store owners believe that the decrease in their business is due to the number of skateboard users in the plaza. There has also been a dramatic increase in the amount of litter and vandalism throughout the plaza. Thus, we recommend that the city prohibit skateboarding in Central Plaza. If skateboarding is prohibited here, we predict that business in Central Plaza will return to its previously high levels."

思路：

1. 当store owners 发现自己的销量下降了，会blame external factors 比如滑板，但是真真的理由可能是internal factors， 因为可能是买的东西不好，或者服务下降了

2. 垃圾和破坏可能是因为整体治安变差，有可能是来了好多外来人口，跟滑板可能无关

3. 就算是滑板造成了伤害，把滑板禁止了不一定会对已经造成的伤害进行弥补，因为客人已经被incepted了负面的印象。

Argue 85：

In a study of the reading habits of Waymarsh citizens conducted by the University of Waymarsh, most respondents said that they preferred literary classics as reading material. However, a second study conducted by the same researchers found that the type of book most frequently checked out of each of the public libraries in Waymarsh was the mystery novel. Therefore, it can be concluded that the respondents in the first study had misrepresented their reading habits.

思路：

1. different participants composition in the two surveys: the author only mentions that the surveys are conducted by the same academic group, but does not clearly say whether they have covered the same participants: first survey = university students = real preferences + reading habits vs second survey: city residents diversified preferences + habits = the diversity is well justified = the second survey cannot disprove the validity of the first one, especially when no detailed info. about the participants is displayed. 

2. 可能一共就几个人喜欢mystery novels， 但是他们每次都借很多本

3. 大家可能都喜欢买文学著作来收藏，而不是去图书馆借来看

4. 去图书馆结束可能只看了封皮，所以大家都喜欢借Mystery novels 因为封皮比较吸引人，但是回家后翻了两页觉得没意思就还回去了。

Argue 177：

"Our team has completed its research on suitable building sites for a new HobCo hobby Shop in the city of Grilldon. We discovered that there are currently no hobby shops in southeastern Grilldon. When our researchers conducted a poll of area residents, 88 percent of those who responded indicated that they would welcome the opening of a hobby shop in southeastern Grilldon. Grilldon is in a region of the nation in which the hobby business has increased by 300 percent during the past decade. In addition, Grilldon has a very large population of retirees, a demographic with ample time to devote to hobbies. We therefore recommend that you choose southeastern Grilldon as the site for your next HobCo Hobby Shop. We predict that a shop in this area will draw a steady stream of enthusiastic new HobCo customers.“

思路：

C: SE Grilldon = good location

P1: no existing relevant shops

P2: survey = 88% support and welcome

P3: past decade = 300% increase

P4: retirees = ample time for hobbies 

1.A denigraophic = general description = not for sure those in Grilldon also comply with the trend; even they have time to hobbies, but not for sure whether the interest would eventually turn into economic actions / realized purchasing power. 

2. Survey: 88% = not know how many people were covered = small sample size; who were those people and how were they asked

3. Past decade = 300% increase = in the future, keep the increasing trend. 

4. No existing = opportunities: must be a reasonable reason to explain the absence of shopping mall despite the higher interests = probably less purchasing will / power to support one business in the area / purchasing from other regions via different channels. 

Argue ：